GoGold Resources Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GGD Stock | CAD 3.84 0.03 0.78% |
GoGold Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although GoGold Resources' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of GoGold Resources' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of GoGold Resources fundamentals over time.
The relative strength momentum indicator of GoGold Resources' stock price is about 68. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling GoGold, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 6.381 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.014 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.11 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.082 | Wall Street Target Price 5 |
Using GoGold Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GoGold Resources from the perspective of GoGold Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GoGold Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 3.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.98. GoGold Resources after-hype prediction price | CAD 5.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
GoGold |
GoGold Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GoGold price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GoGold using various technical indicators. When you analyze GoGold charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
GoGold Resources Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GoGold Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 3.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GoGold Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GoGold Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GoGold Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GoGold Resources | GoGold Resources Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
GoGold Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GoGold Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GoGold Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 8.21, respectively. We have considered GoGold Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GoGold Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GoGold Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8514 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.021 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0816 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0282 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.98 |
Predictive Modules for GoGold Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GoGold Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GoGold Resources After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GoGold Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GoGold Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of GoGold Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GoGold Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GoGold Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GoGold Resources' historical news coverage. GoGold Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.17 and 9.91, respectively. We have considered GoGold Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GoGold Resources is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GoGold Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.
GoGold Resources Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as GoGold Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GoGold Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GoGold Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.76 | 4.37 | 1.81 | 0.47 | 1 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.84 | 5.50 | 43.28 |
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GoGold Resources Hype Timeline
GoGold Resources is currently traded for 3.84on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.81, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.47. GoGold is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 5.502 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 70.14%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 43.28%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.76%. The volatility of related hype on GoGold Resources is about 711.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.31. GoGold Resources has accumulated 1.21 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 51.3, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. GoGold Resources has a current ratio of 5.06, suggesting that it is liquid and has the ability to pay its financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist GoGold Resources until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, GoGold Resources' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like GoGold Resources sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for GoGold to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about GoGold Resources' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GoGold Resources to cross-verify your projections.GoGold Resources Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GoGold Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GoGold Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how GoGold Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GoGold Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ASM | Avino Silver Gold | (0.76) | 2 per month | 2.91 | 0.27 | 9.06 | (4.54) | 17.42 | |
| MTA | Metalla Royalty Streaming | 0.31 | 7 per month | 2.26 | 0.08 | 5.68 | (3.43) | 13.13 | |
| ITR | Integra Resources Corp | 0.49 | 8 per month | 3.08 | 0.15 | 8.01 | (5.88) | 19.75 | |
| ABRA | AbraSilver Resource Corp | 0.43 | 9 per month | 2.59 | 0.28 | 7.65 | (5.03) | 21.22 | |
| ORE | Orezone Gold Corp | 0.04 | 3 per month | 1.86 | 0.28 | 6.43 | (3.68) | 16.86 | |
| SGML | Sigma Lithium Resources | (0.62) | 8 per month | 6.48 | 0.16 | 15.96 | (12.62) | 51.69 | |
| GAU | Galiano Gold | 5.77 | 1 per month | 4.03 | 0.05 | 7.03 | (5.54) | 19.03 | |
| MDI | Major Drilling Group | 0.23 | 5 per month | 2.00 | 0.11 | 4.39 | (3.67) | 9.60 | |
| DBM | Doman Building Materials | 0.07 | 8 per month | 0.92 | 0.13 | 2.55 | (1.69) | 6.10 | |
| APM | Andean Precious Metals | 0.18 | 7 per month | 3.97 | 0.13 | 8.04 | (6.72) | 24.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for GoGold Resources
For every potential investor in GoGold, whether a beginner or expert, GoGold Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GoGold Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GoGold. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GoGold Resources' price trends.GoGold Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GoGold Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GoGold Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GoGold Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GoGold Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GoGold Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GoGold Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GoGold Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GoGold Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 134242.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.18) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3.84 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3.84 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 68.01 |
GoGold Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of GoGold Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GoGold Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gogold stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.3 | |||
| Variance | 18.53 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.73 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.64 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.55) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GoGold Resources
The number of cover stories for GoGold Resources depends on current market conditions and GoGold Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GoGold Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GoGold Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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GoGold Resources Short Properties
GoGold Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when GoGold Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of GoGold Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential GoGold Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GoGold Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 359.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 141.1 M |
Other Information on Investing in GoGold Stock
GoGold Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether GoGold Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in GoGold with respect to the benefits of owning GoGold Resources security.