Gildan Activewear Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GIL Stock | USD 49.83 0.35 0.71% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gildan Activewear on the next trading day is expected to be 50.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.20. Gildan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Gildan Activewear's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Gildan Activewear's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Gildan Activewear fundamentals over time.
Gildan |
Gildan Activewear Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gildan Activewear on the next trading day is expected to be 50.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gildan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gildan Activewear's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gildan Activewear Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gildan Activewear | Gildan Activewear Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Gildan Activewear Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gildan Activewear's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gildan Activewear's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 49.47 and 51.42, respectively. We have considered Gildan Activewear's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gildan Activewear stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gildan Activewear stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0564 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3763 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.008 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.2003 |
Predictive Modules for Gildan Activewear
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gildan Activewear. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Gildan Activewear
For every potential investor in Gildan, whether a beginner or expert, Gildan Activewear's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gildan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gildan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gildan Activewear's price trends.Gildan Activewear Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gildan Activewear stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gildan Activewear could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gildan Activewear by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gildan Activewear Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gildan Activewear's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gildan Activewear's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Gildan Activewear Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gildan Activewear stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gildan Activewear shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gildan Activewear stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gildan Activewear entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gildan Activewear Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gildan Activewear's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gildan Activewear's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gildan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8172 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6833 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Variance | 1.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9874 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4669 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gildan Activewear to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Gildan Stock please use our How to buy in Gildan Stock guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Gildan Activewear. If investors know Gildan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Gildan Activewear listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.124 | Dividend Share 0.801 | Earnings Share 2.51 | Revenue Per Share 19.316 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.024 |
The market value of Gildan Activewear is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Gildan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Gildan Activewear's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Gildan Activewear's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Gildan Activewear's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Gildan Activewear's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gildan Activewear's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gildan Activewear is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gildan Activewear's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.