Gabelli Gold Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

GLDAX Fund  USD 46.74  0.48  1.02%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Gabelli Gold Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 52.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 155.73. Gabelli Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Gabelli Gold's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Gabelli Gold's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Gabelli Gold Fund, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Gabelli Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gabelli Gold Fund from the perspective of Gabelli Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Gabelli Gold Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 52.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 155.73.

Gabelli Gold after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 46.74  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gabelli Gold to cross-verify your projections.

Gabelli Gold Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Gabelli price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gabelli using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gabelli charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Gabelli Gold price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Gabelli Gold Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Gabelli Gold Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 52.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.55, mean absolute percentage error of 8.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 155.73.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gabelli Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gabelli Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Gabelli Gold Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Gabelli GoldGabelli Gold Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Gabelli Gold Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Gabelli Gold's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gabelli Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 49.17 and 55.74, respectively. We have considered Gabelli Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
46.74
52.45
Expected Value
55.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gabelli Gold mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gabelli Gold mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.2835
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.5529
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0539
SAESum of the absolute errors155.7271
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Gabelli Gold Fund historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Gabelli Gold

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gabelli Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
43.4646.7450.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
40.1443.4251.41
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
43.5250.4757.42
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Gabelli Gold. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Gabelli Gold's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Gabelli Gold's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Gabelli Gold.

Other Forecasting Options for Gabelli Gold

For every potential investor in Gabelli, whether a beginner or expert, Gabelli Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gabelli Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gabelli. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gabelli Gold's price trends.

Gabelli Gold Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gabelli Gold mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gabelli Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gabelli Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Gabelli Gold Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gabelli Gold's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gabelli Gold's current price.

Gabelli Gold Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gabelli Gold mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gabelli Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gabelli Gold mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Gabelli Gold Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Gabelli Gold Risk Indicators

The analysis of Gabelli Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gabelli Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gabelli mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Gabelli Mutual Fund

Gabelli Gold financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gabelli Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gabelli with respect to the benefits of owning Gabelli Gold security.
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