Global Partners Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GLP Stock | USD 44.27 0.24 0.54% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Global Partners LP on the next trading day is expected to be 44.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.52. Global Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Global Partners' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Global Partners' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Global Partners fundamentals over time.
As of today the value of relative strength index of Global Partners' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.44) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.96 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.17 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.88 | Wall Street Target Price 49 |
Using Global Partners hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Global Partners LP from the perspective of Global Partners response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Global Partners using Global Partners' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Global using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Global Partners' stock price.
Global Partners Short Interest
An investor who is long Global Partners may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Global Partners and may potentially protect profits, hedge Global Partners with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 48.3916 | Short Percent 0.0194 | Short Ratio 8.18 | Shares Short Prior Month 431.1 K | 50 Day MA 43.0992 |
Global Partners LP Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Global Partners' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Global. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Global can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Global Partners LP. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Global Partners Implied Volatility | 0.72 |
Global Partners' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Global Partners LP stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Global Partners' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Global Partners stock will not fluctuate a lot when Global Partners' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Global Partners LP on the next trading day is expected to be 44.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.52. Global Partners after-hype prediction price | USD 44.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Partners to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Global contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Global Partners LP will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.045% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Global Partners trading at USD 44.27, that is roughly USD 0.0199 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Global Partners' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Global Partners LP options at the current volatility level of 0.72%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Global Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Global Partners' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Global Partners' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Global Partners stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Global Partners' open interest, investors have to compare it to Global Partners' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Global Partners is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Global. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Global Partners Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Global price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Global using various technical indicators. When you analyze Global charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Global Partners Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Global Partners LP on the next trading day is expected to be 44.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66, mean absolute percentage error of 0.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Global Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Global Partners' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Global Partners Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Global Partners | Global Partners Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Global Partners Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Global Partners' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Global Partners' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.30 and 46.24, respectively. We have considered Global Partners' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Global Partners stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Global Partners stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9344 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0177 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6587 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0154 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.52 |
Predictive Modules for Global Partners
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Global Partners LP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Global Partners After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Global Partners at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Global Partners or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Global Partners, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Global Partners Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Global Partners' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Global Partners' historical news coverage. Global Partners' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.30 and 46.24, respectively. We have considered Global Partners' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Global Partners is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Global Partners LP is based on 3 months time horizon.
Global Partners Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Global Partners is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Global Partners backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Global Partners, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 1.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
44.27 | 44.27 | 0.00 |
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Global Partners Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January Global Partners LP is traded for 44.27. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Global is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Global Partners is about 2698.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.27. About 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Global Partners was currently reported as 17.94. The company last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Partners to cross-verify your projections.Global Partners Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Global Partners' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Global Partners' future price movements. Getting to know how Global Partners' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Global Partners may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FLNG | FLEX LNG | (0.06) | 7 per month | 1.34 | 0.03 | 2.55 | (2.05) | 8.17 | |
| DNOW | Now Inc | (0.36) | 4 per month | 2.17 | (0.01) | 3.90 | (3.86) | 11.62 | |
| EFXT | Enerflex | (0.74) | 9 per month | 1.59 | 0.23 | 4.43 | (3.16) | 11.18 | |
| WKC | World Kinect | (0.16) | 8 per month | 2.03 | 0 | 2.94 | (3.35) | 11.51 | |
| XPRO | Expro Group Holdings | 1.90 | 38 per month | 2.54 | 0.10 | 5.94 | (4.94) | 14.92 | |
| NEXT | Nextdecade Corp | (0.21) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.21 | (6.04) | 17.50 | |
| FLOC | Flowco Holdings | (0.53) | 10 per month | 1.95 | 0.15 | 4.18 | (3.32) | 23.77 | |
| LPG | Dorian LPG | 0.62 | 9 per month | 2.10 | 0 | 3.34 | (2.53) | 11.45 | |
| INVX | Innovex International | 0.33 | 9 per month | 1.57 | 0.18 | 5.81 | (2.95) | 12.82 | |
| NVGS | Navigator Holdings | (0.06) | 10 per month | 0.81 | 0.16 | 2.82 | (1.42) | 7.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for Global Partners
For every potential investor in Global, whether a beginner or expert, Global Partners' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Global Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Global. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Global Partners' price trends.Global Partners Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Global Partners stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Global Partners could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Global Partners by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Global Partners Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Global Partners stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Global Partners shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Global Partners stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Global Partners LP entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Global Partners Risk Indicators
The analysis of Global Partners' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Global Partners' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting global stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Variance | 3.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.51) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Global Partners
The number of cover stories for Global Partners depends on current market conditions and Global Partners' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Global Partners is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Global Partners' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Global Partners Short Properties
Global Partners' future price predictability will typically decrease when Global Partners' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Global Partners LP often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Global Partners' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Global Partners' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 34.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.2 M |
Additional Tools for Global Stock Analysis
When running Global Partners' price analysis, check to measure Global Partners' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Global Partners is operating at the current time. Most of Global Partners' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Global Partners' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Global Partners' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Global Partners to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.