Galp Energa Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GLPEY Stock | USD 9.50 0.21 2.26% |
Galp Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Galp Energa's share price is at 55. This usually indicates that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Galp Energa, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Galp Energa hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Galp Energa from the perspective of Galp Energa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Galp Energa on the next trading day is expected to be 9.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.87. Galp Energa after-hype prediction price | USD 9.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Galp |
Galp Energa Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Galp price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Galp using various technical indicators. When you analyze Galp charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Galp Energa Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Galp Energa on the next trading day is expected to be 9.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.87.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Galp Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Galp Energa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Galp Energa Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Galp Energa | Galp Energa Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Galp Energa Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Galp Energa's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Galp Energa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.14 and 11.86, respectively. We have considered Galp Energa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Galp Energa pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Galp Energa pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.3366 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0078 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1312 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0143 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.87 |
Predictive Modules for Galp Energa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Galp Energa. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Galp Energa's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Galp Energa After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Galp Energa at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Galp Energa or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Galp Energa, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Galp Energa Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Galp Energa's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Galp Energa's historical news coverage. Galp Energa's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.14 and 11.86, respectively. We have considered Galp Energa's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Galp Energa is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Galp Energa is based on 3 months time horizon.
Galp Energa Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Galp Energa is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Galp Energa backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Galp Energa, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.50 | 9.50 | 0.00 |
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Galp Energa Hype Timeline
Galp Energa is currently traded for 9.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Galp is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Galp Energa is about 13111.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.50. The book value of the company was currently reported as 2.56. The company last dividend was issued on the 22nd of September 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Galp Energa to cross-verify your projections.Galp Energa Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Galp Energa's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Galp Energa's future price movements. Getting to know how Galp Energa's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Galp Energa may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PUTRY | PTT PCL ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 2.88 | 0.00 | 12.50 | |
| PSKOF | Polski Koncern Naftowy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17.79 | |
| PETFF | PTT Public | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| WOPEF | Woodside Petroleum | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.84 | 0.03 | 8.11 | (8.03) | 23.59 | |
| PUTRF | PTT Public | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.47 | |
| MPLX | MPLX LP | 0.18 | 4 per month | 0.88 | 0.12 | 1.73 | (1.73) | 4.74 | |
| REPYY | Repsol SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.87 | 0.02 | 3.12 | (2.95) | 10.15 | |
| REPYF | Repsol SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.48 | 0.02 | 5.79 | (7.92) | 16.12 | |
| ENBFF | Enbridge | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.31 | |
| IPXHY | Inpex Corp ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.43 | 0.11 | 3.04 | (2.26) | 9.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for Galp Energa
For every potential investor in Galp, whether a beginner or expert, Galp Energa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Galp Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Galp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Galp Energa's price trends.Galp Energa Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Galp Energa pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Galp Energa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Galp Energa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Galp Energa Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Galp Energa pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Galp Energa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Galp Energa pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Galp Energa entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Galp Energa Risk Indicators
The analysis of Galp Energa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Galp Energa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting galp pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Variance | 5.55 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Galp Energa
The number of cover stories for Galp Energa depends on current market conditions and Galp Energa's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Galp Energa is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Galp Energa's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Galp Energa Short Properties
Galp Energa's future price predictability will typically decrease when Galp Energa's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Galp Energa often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Galp Energa's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Galp Energa's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.9 B |
Additional Tools for Galp Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Galp Energa's price analysis, check to measure Galp Energa's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Galp Energa is operating at the current time. Most of Galp Energa's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Galp Energa's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Galp Energa's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Galp Energa to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.