Gmo Small Mutual Fund Forward View

GMAWX Fund   25.13  0.06  0.24%   
Gmo Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Gmo Small's share price is at 57. This usually indicates that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Gmo Small, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 57

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Gmo Small's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Gmo Small Cap, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Gmo Small hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gmo Small Cap from the perspective of Gmo Small response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gmo Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 24.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.61.

Gmo Small after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 25.13  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gmo Small to cross-verify your projections.

Gmo Small Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Gmo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gmo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gmo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Gmo Small is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Gmo Small Cap value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Gmo Small Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gmo Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 24.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.61.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gmo Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gmo Small's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Gmo Small Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Gmo Small  Gmo Small Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Gmo Small Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Gmo Small's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gmo Small's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.39 and 25.42, respectively. We have considered Gmo Small's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
25.13
24.40
Expected Value
25.42
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gmo Small mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gmo Small mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.7018
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2396
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.01
SAESum of the absolute errors14.6138
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Gmo Small Cap. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Gmo Small. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Gmo Small

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gmo Small Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gmo Small's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.1325.1326.13
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
23.6424.6425.64
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
23.6124.9526.29
Details

Gmo Small After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Gmo Small at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gmo Small or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Gmo Small, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Gmo Small Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Gmo Small's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gmo Small's historical news coverage. Gmo Small's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.13 and 26.13, respectively. We have considered Gmo Small's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
25.13
25.13
After-hype Price
26.13
Upside
Gmo Small is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gmo Small Cap is based on 3 months time horizon.

Gmo Small Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Gmo Small is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gmo Small backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gmo Small, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.15 
1.01
  0.38 
  1.41 
5 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
25.13
25.13
0.00 
40.08  
Notes

Gmo Small Hype Timeline

Gmo Small Cap is currently traded for 25.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.38, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.41. Gmo is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 40.08%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on Gmo Small is about 10.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.54. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gmo Small to cross-verify your projections.

Gmo Small Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Gmo Small's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gmo Small's future price movements. Getting to know how Gmo Small's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gmo Small may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Gmo Small

For every potential investor in Gmo, whether a beginner or expert, Gmo Small's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gmo Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gmo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gmo Small's price trends.

Gmo Small Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gmo Small mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gmo Small could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gmo Small by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Gmo Small Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gmo Small mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gmo Small shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gmo Small mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Gmo Small Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Gmo Small Risk Indicators

The analysis of Gmo Small's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gmo Small's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gmo mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Gmo Small

The number of cover stories for Gmo Small depends on current market conditions and Gmo Small's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gmo Small is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gmo Small's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Gmo Mutual Fund

Gmo Small financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gmo Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gmo with respect to the benefits of owning Gmo Small security.
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