Gmo Small Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

GMAWX Fund   24.81  0.45  1.85%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gmo Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 25.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.07. Gmo Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Gmo Small's mutual fund price is slightly above 61. This usually indicates that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Gmo, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 61

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Gmo Small's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Gmo Small Cap, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Gmo Small hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gmo Small Cap from the perspective of Gmo Small response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gmo Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 25.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.07.

Gmo Small after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 24.81  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gmo Small to cross-verify your projections.

Gmo Small Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Gmo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gmo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gmo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Gmo Small is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Gmo Small Cap value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Gmo Small Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gmo Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 25.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.07.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gmo Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gmo Small's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Gmo Small Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Gmo SmallGmo Small Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Gmo Small Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Gmo Small's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gmo Small's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.36 and 26.34, respectively. We have considered Gmo Small's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.81
25.35
Expected Value
26.34
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gmo Small mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gmo Small mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.2703
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2108
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.009
SAESum of the absolute errors13.0718
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Gmo Small Cap. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Gmo Small. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Gmo Small

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gmo Small Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gmo Small's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
23.8024.8125.82
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.4825.4926.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
23.4024.0124.63
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Gmo Small

For every potential investor in Gmo, whether a beginner or expert, Gmo Small's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gmo Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gmo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gmo Small's price trends.

Gmo Small Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gmo Small mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gmo Small could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gmo Small by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Gmo Small Cap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gmo Small's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gmo Small's current price.

Gmo Small Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gmo Small mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gmo Small shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gmo Small mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Gmo Small Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Gmo Small Risk Indicators

The analysis of Gmo Small's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gmo Small's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gmo mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Gmo Mutual Fund

Gmo Small financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gmo Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gmo with respect to the benefits of owning Gmo Small security.
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