GeoVax Labs Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GOVXWDelisted Stock | USD 0 0 35.19% |
GeoVax Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of GeoVax Labs' share price is approaching 35. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling GeoVax Labs, making its price go up or down. Momentum 35
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using GeoVax Labs hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GeoVax Labs from the perspective of GeoVax Labs response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of GeoVax Labs on the next trading day is expected to be 0 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.14. GeoVax Labs after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0035 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
GeoVax |
GeoVax Labs Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GeoVax price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GeoVax using various technical indicators. When you analyze GeoVax charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
GeoVax Labs Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of GeoVax Labs on the next trading day is expected to be 0 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GeoVax Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GeoVax Labs' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GeoVax Labs Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GeoVax Labs | GeoVax Labs Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GeoVax Labs stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GeoVax Labs stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 106.6164 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0023 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1266 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.1432 |
Predictive Modules for GeoVax Labs
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GeoVax Labs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GeoVax Labs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
GeoVax Labs After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GeoVax Labs at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GeoVax Labs or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of GeoVax Labs, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GeoVax Labs Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GeoVax Labs' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GeoVax Labs' historical news coverage. GeoVax Labs' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 0.00, respectively. We have considered GeoVax Labs' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GeoVax Labs is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GeoVax Labs is based on 3 months time horizon.
GeoVax Labs Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as GeoVax Labs is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GeoVax Labs backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GeoVax Labs, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0 | 0 | 0.00 |
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GeoVax Labs Hype Timeline
GeoVax Labs is currently traded for 0. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. GeoVax is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on GeoVax Labs is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.00. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.GeoVax Labs Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GeoVax Labs' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GeoVax Labs' future price movements. Getting to know how GeoVax Labs' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GeoVax Labs may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AFMD | Affimed NV | 0.02 | 5 per month | 14.97 | 0.02 | 10.53 | (13.54) | 108.58 | |
| ARAV | Aravive | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| QTTB | Q32 Bio | (0.43) | 9 per month | 5.62 | 0.06 | 7.51 | (9.05) | 85.16 | |
| RVLP | RVL Pharmaceuticals PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ONCO | Onconetix | (0.14) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 9.09 | (12.46) | 36.81 | |
| IDRA | Idera Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NOVN | Novan Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BPTS | Biophytis | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| EIGRQ | Eiger BioPharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| LSTA | Lisata Therapeutics | 0.08 | 8 per month | 2.85 | 0.10 | 5.58 | (5.26) | 85.83 |
GeoVax Labs Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GeoVax Labs stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GeoVax Labs could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GeoVax Labs by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GeoVax Labs Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GeoVax Labs stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GeoVax Labs shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GeoVax Labs stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GeoVax Labs entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Story Coverage note for GeoVax Labs
The number of cover stories for GeoVax Labs depends on current market conditions and GeoVax Labs' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GeoVax Labs is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GeoVax Labs' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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GeoVax Labs Short Properties
GeoVax Labs' future price predictability will typically decrease when GeoVax Labs' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of GeoVax Labs often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential GeoVax Labs' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GeoVax Labs' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.5 M |
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Other Consideration for investing in GeoVax Stock
If you are still planning to invest in GeoVax Labs check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the GeoVax Labs' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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