Genuine Parts Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

GPC Stock

USD 104.72 -0.53 -0.50%

Genuine Parts Co's Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast is generated from the selected price series and evaluated against observed values. Forecast accuracy depends on how stable the recent price trend has been — trending markets suit some models better than others. The Triple Exponential Smoothing model projects Genuine Parts at 104.51 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. All values shown are model-generated projections and should be evaluated alongside other analytical inputs.

Triple exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters method) for Genuine Parts extends the double exponential model by adding a seasonality component. It simultaneously estimates the level, trend, and periodic pattern in Genuine Parts price series.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Genuine Parts at 104.51 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.93 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 113.99 .

This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Genuine Parts' recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Genuine Parts

Genuine Parts Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

Genuine Parts' next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The model places downside around 101.98 and upside around 107.04 for the next session. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.

Market Value

104.72

101.98

Downside

104.51

Expected Value

107.04

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Triple Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Genuine Parts stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	Huge
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	-0.3356
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	1.9321
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0172
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	113.9944

This model is designed for Genuine Parts price data that exhibits both a directional trend and recurring seasonal patterns. If the underlying series lacks seasonality, simpler models may produce tighter forecasts with fewer parameters. As with all exponential smoothing methods, recent observations carry the greatest weight in the forecast.

Other Forecasting Options for Genuine Parts

Bollinger Bands applied to Genuine Parts Stock price data measure how far Genuine Parts has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Genuine Parts' price data.

Genuine Parts Related Equities

The stocks listed below are peers of Genuine Parts within the Consumer Discretionary space and offer context for ranking and strength. Looking at Genuine Parts' pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. When Genuine Parts breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring.

Best Buy Co Dicks Sporting Goods Caseys General Stores Burlington Stores Packaging Corp of Amcor PLC Lululemon Athletica Yum China Holdings Nio Class A Ulta Beauty American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

Genuine Parts Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Genuine Parts quantify how the stock responds to shifts in volume and sentiment. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in Genuine Parts.

	Accumulation Distribution	19518.91
	Daily Balance Of Power	-0.24
	Rate Of Daily Change	0.99
	Day Median Price	105.59
	Day Typical Price	105.3
	Price Action Indicator	-1.14
	Period Momentum Indicator	-0.53
	Relative Strength Index	37.22

Genuine Parts Risk Indicators

Analyzing Genuine Parts' risk indicators separates symmetric price swings from asymmetric downside exposure. Understanding and quantifying the risks present in Genuine Parts helps place recent price behavior in context.

	Mean Deviation	1.66
	Standard Deviation	2.54
	Variance	6.44

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Genuine Parts Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Genuine Parts reveal whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. When applied, these measures clarify when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.

	Common Stock Shares Outstanding	139.25 million
	Cash And Short Term Investments	477.18 million

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average