Grande Group Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GRAN Stock | 2.79 0.01 0.36% |
Grande Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Grande Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Grande Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Grande Group fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Grande Group's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.71) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) |
Using Grande Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Grande Group Limited from the perspective of Grande Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grande Group Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.78. Grande Group after-hype prediction price | USD 2.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grande Group to cross-verify your projections. Grande Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Grande price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Grande using various technical indicators. When you analyze Grande charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Grande Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grande Group Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grande Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grande Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Grande Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Grande Group | Grande Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Grande Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Grande Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grande Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 10.73, respectively. We have considered Grande Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grande Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grande Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2705 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0066 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1603 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0501 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.78 |
Predictive Modules for Grande Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grande Group Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Grande Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Grande Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Grande Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Grande Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Grande Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Grande Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Grande Group's historical news coverage. Grande Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.14 and 10.67, respectively. We have considered Grande Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Grande Group is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Grande Group Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
Grande Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Grande Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Grande Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Grande Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.55 | 7.94 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 3 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.79 | 2.73 | 2.15 |
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Grande Group Hype Timeline
Grande Group Limited is currently traded for 2.79. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Grande is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.73. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.15%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.55%. The volatility of related hype on Grande Group is about 17014.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.76. About 76.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grande Group to cross-verify your projections.Grande Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Grande Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Grande Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Grande Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Grande Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HNNA | Hennessy Ad | 0.02 | 11 per month | 1.94 | (0.02) | 2.45 | (3.16) | 10.41 | |
| FOFO | Hang Feng Technology | (0.49) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 8.28 | (9.72) | 46.85 | |
| OFS | OFS Capital Corp | (0.30) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.51 | (4.62) | 17.27 | |
| BMHL | Bluemount Holdings Limited | 0.10 | 1 per month | 4.02 | 0.04 | 7.99 | (6.63) | 19.68 | |
| PFX | Phenixfin | 0.33 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.58 | (3.42) | 12.44 | |
| NXC | Nuveen California Select | 0.07 | 9 per month | 0.21 | (0.11) | 0.68 | (0.46) | 1.98 | |
| SSEA | Starry Sea Acquisition | 0.00 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.55) | 0.30 | (0.10) | 0.70 | |
| GECC | Great Elm Capital | 0.03 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.55 | (4.13) | 8.26 | |
| STKE | Sol Strategies Common | (0.18) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 12.00 | (9.17) | 35.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for Grande Group
For every potential investor in Grande, whether a beginner or expert, Grande Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grande Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grande. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grande Group's price trends.Grande Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Grande Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Grande Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Grande Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Grande Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grande Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grande Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grande Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Grande Group Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 962.37 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.03) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.94 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.89 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.15) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) |
Grande Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Grande Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grande Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grande stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.27 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.81 | |||
| Variance | 61.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 39.26 | |||
| Semi Variance | 35.84 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.75) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Grande Group
The number of cover stories for Grande Group depends on current market conditions and Grande Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Grande Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Grande Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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Grande Group Short Properties
Grande Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Grande Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Grande Group Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Grande Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grande Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grande Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Will Capital Markets sector continue expanding? Could Grande diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Grande Group. Market participants price Grande higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Grande Group data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.71) | Earnings Share 0.07 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Grande Group Limited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Grande that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Grande Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Grande Group's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Grande Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Grande Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grande Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Grande Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Grande Group's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.