Granit Bank Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GRANIT Stock   12,700  50.00  0.39%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Granit Bank Zrt on the next trading day is expected to be 12,748 with a mean absolute deviation of 126.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,731. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Granit Bank's stock prices and determine the direction of Granit Bank Zrt's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Granit Bank's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in gross domestic product. At the present time, the value of RSI of Granit Bank's share price is approaching 47. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Granit Bank, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 47

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Granit Bank's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Granit Bank Zrt, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Granit Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Granit Bank Zrt from the perspective of Granit Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Granit Bank Zrt on the next trading day is expected to be 12,748 with a mean absolute deviation of 126.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,731.

Granit Bank after-hype prediction price

    
  HUF 12700.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in gross domestic product.

Granit Bank Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Granit price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Granit using various technical indicators. When you analyze Granit charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Granit Bank is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Granit Bank Zrt value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Granit Bank Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Granit Bank Zrt on the next trading day is expected to be 12,748 with a mean absolute deviation of 126.74, mean absolute percentage error of 26,233, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,731.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Granit Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Granit Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Granit Bank Stock Forecast Pattern

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Granit Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Granit Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria128.2853
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation126.7373
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0098
SAESum of the absolute errors7730.9754
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Granit Bank Zrt. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Granit Bank. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Granit Bank

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Granit Bank Zrt. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Granit Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

As far as predicting the price of Granit Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Granit Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Granit Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Granit Bank Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Granit Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Granit Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Granit Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.13 
1.78
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
12,700
12,700
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Granit Bank Hype Timeline

Granit Bank Zrt is currently traded for 12,700on Budapest Stock Exchange of Hungary. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Granit is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Granit Bank is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12,700. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in a few days.
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in gross domestic product.

Granit Bank Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Granit Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Granit Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how Granit Bank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Granit Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Granit Bank Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Granit Bank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Granit Bank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Granit Bank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Granit Bank Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Granit Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Granit Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Granit Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Granit Bank Zrt entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Granit Bank Risk Indicators

The analysis of Granit Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Granit Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting granit stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Granit Bank

The number of cover stories for Granit Bank depends on current market conditions and Granit Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Granit Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Granit Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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