Granite Real Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GRP-UN Stock | USD 63.24 0.06 0.09% |
Granite Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Granite Real's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Granite Real's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Granite Real fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Granite Real's share price is at 56. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Granite Real, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.37) | Wall Street Target Price 70.1615 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.078 |
Using Granite Real hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Granite Real Estate from the perspective of Granite Real response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Granite Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Granite Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 64.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.30.Granite Real Estate Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Granite Real's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Granite. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Granite can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Granite Real Estate. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Granite Real's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Granite Real.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Granite Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 64.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.30. Granite Real after-hype prediction price | USD 63.24 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Granite Real to cross-verify your projections. Granite Real Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Granite price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Granite using various technical indicators. When you analyze Granite charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Granite Real Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Granite Real's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2004-03-31 | Previous Quarter 86.4 M | Current Value 127.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 166 M |
Granite Real Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Granite Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 64.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76, mean absolute percentage error of 2.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Granite Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Granite Real's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Granite Real Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Granite Real | Granite Real Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Granite Real Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Granite Real's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Granite Real's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 60.21 and 69.36, respectively. We have considered Granite Real's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Granite Real stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Granite Real stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.0896 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7591 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0136 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 46.304 |
Predictive Modules for Granite Real
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Granite Real Estate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Granite Real After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Granite Real at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Granite Real or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Granite Real, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Granite Real Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Granite Real's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Granite Real's historical news coverage. Granite Real's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 58.66 and 67.82, respectively. We have considered Granite Real's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Granite Real is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Granite Real Estate is based on 3 months time horizon.
Granite Real Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Granite Real is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Granite Real backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Granite Real, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 4.58 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 8 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
63.24 | 63.24 | 0.00 |
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Granite Real Hype Timeline
Granite Real Estate is currently traded for 63.24. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.07. Granite is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on Granite Real is about 2318.99%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 63.31. About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.95. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Granite Real Estate last dividend was issued on the 28th of November 2025. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Granite Real to cross-verify your projections.Granite Real Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Granite Real's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Granite Real's future price movements. Getting to know how Granite Real's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Granite Real may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NSA-PA | National Storage Affiliates | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 0.95 | (1.17) | 2.83 | |
| PSA-PH | Public Storage | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 0.66 | (0.83) | 1.91 | |
| IIPR-PA | Innovative Industrial Properties | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 0.87 | (1.08) | 2.71 | |
| LXP | LXP Industrial Trust | (0.17) | 8 per month | 1.42 | (0.02) | 1.79 | (2.53) | 7.32 | |
| PLYM | Plymouth Industrial REIT | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 0.63 | (0.59) | 5.25 | |
| REXR-PB | Rexford Industrial Realty | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.65 | (1.52) | 4.52 | |
| LXP-PC | Lexington Realty Trust | (0.07) | 24 per month | 0.55 | (0.1) | 0.99 | (1.12) | 2.88 | |
| AMH-PG | American Homes 4 | 1.81 | 25 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 0.96 | (1.54) | 3.62 |
Other Forecasting Options for Granite Real
For every potential investor in Granite, whether a beginner or expert, Granite Real's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Granite Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Granite. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Granite Real's price trends.Granite Real Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Granite Real stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Granite Real could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Granite Real by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Granite Real Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Granite Real stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Granite Real shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Granite Real stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Granite Real Estate entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Granite Real Risk Indicators
The analysis of Granite Real's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Granite Real's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting granite stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.28 | |||
| Variance | 18.36 | |||
| Downside Variance | 18.71 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.55 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.81) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Granite Real
The number of cover stories for Granite Real depends on current market conditions and Granite Real's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Granite Real is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Granite Real's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Granite Real Short Properties
Granite Real's future price predictability will typically decrease when Granite Real's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Granite Real Estate often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Granite Real's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Granite Real's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 63.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 126.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Granite Real to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.