Graphisoft Park Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

GSP Stock   14.50  0.10  0.69%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graphisoft Park SE on the next trading day is expected to be 14.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.40. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Graphisoft Park's stock prices and determine the direction of Graphisoft Park SE's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Graphisoft Park's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics. The value of RSI of Graphisoft Park's stock price is about 65. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Graphisoft, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 65

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Graphisoft Park's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Graphisoft Park and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Graphisoft Park's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Graphisoft Park SE, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Graphisoft Park hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Graphisoft Park SE from the perspective of Graphisoft Park response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graphisoft Park SE on the next trading day is expected to be 14.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.40.

Graphisoft Park after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 14.5  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics.

Graphisoft Park Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Graphisoft price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Graphisoft using various technical indicators. When you analyze Graphisoft charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Graphisoft Park - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Graphisoft Park prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Graphisoft Park price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Graphisoft Park SE.

Graphisoft Park Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graphisoft Park SE on the next trading day is expected to be 14.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.40.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Graphisoft Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Graphisoft Park's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Graphisoft Park Stock Forecast Pattern

Graphisoft Park Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Graphisoft Park's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Graphisoft Park's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.60 and 15.50, respectively. We have considered Graphisoft Park's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.50
14.55
Expected Value
15.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Graphisoft Park stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Graphisoft Park stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.025
MADMean absolute deviation0.1067
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0078
SAESum of the absolute errors6.4
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Graphisoft Park observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Graphisoft Park SE observations.

Predictive Modules for Graphisoft Park

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Graphisoft Park SE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Graphisoft Park. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Graphisoft Park's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Graphisoft Park's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Graphisoft Park SE.

Graphisoft Park Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

As far as predicting the price of Graphisoft Park at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Graphisoft Park or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Graphisoft Park, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Graphisoft Park Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Graphisoft Park is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Graphisoft Park backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Graphisoft Park, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.24 
0.95
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
14.50
14.50
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Graphisoft Park Hype Timeline

Graphisoft Park SE is currently traded for 14.50on Budapest Stock Exchange of Hungary. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Graphisoft is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Graphisoft Park is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.50. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics.

Graphisoft Park Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Graphisoft Park's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Graphisoft Park's future price movements. Getting to know how Graphisoft Park's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Graphisoft Park may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Graphisoft Park

For every potential investor in Graphisoft, whether a beginner or expert, Graphisoft Park's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Graphisoft Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Graphisoft. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Graphisoft Park's price trends.

Graphisoft Park Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Graphisoft Park stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Graphisoft Park could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Graphisoft Park by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Graphisoft Park Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Graphisoft Park stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Graphisoft Park shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Graphisoft Park stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Graphisoft Park SE entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Graphisoft Park Risk Indicators

The analysis of Graphisoft Park's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Graphisoft Park's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graphisoft stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Graphisoft Park

The number of cover stories for Graphisoft Park depends on current market conditions and Graphisoft Park's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Graphisoft Park is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Graphisoft Park's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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