GT Biopharma Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GTBP Stock | USD 0.74 0.05 7.25% |
GTBP Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although GT Biopharma's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of GT Biopharma's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of GT Biopharma fundamentals over time.
As of today, The RSI of GT Biopharma's share price is at 52. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling GT Biopharma, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.21) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.66) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.70) | Wall Street Target Price 8 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.38) |
Using GT Biopharma hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GT Biopharma from the perspective of GT Biopharma response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of GT Biopharma on the next trading day is expected to be 0.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.11. GT Biopharma after-hype prediction price | USD 0.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GT Biopharma to cross-verify your projections. GT Biopharma Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GTBP price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GTBP using various technical indicators. When you analyze GTBP charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
GT Biopharma Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the GT Biopharma's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 5.2 M | Current Value 2.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 4.3 M |
GT Biopharma Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of GT Biopharma on the next trading day is expected to be 0.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.11.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GTBP Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GT Biopharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GT Biopharma Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GT Biopharma | GT Biopharma Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
GT Biopharma Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GT Biopharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GT Biopharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 8.20, respectively. We have considered GT Biopharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GT Biopharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GT Biopharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4338 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0501 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0707 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.1054 |
Predictive Modules for GT Biopharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GT Biopharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GT Biopharma After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GT Biopharma at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GT Biopharma or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of GT Biopharma, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GT Biopharma Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GT Biopharma's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GT Biopharma's historical news coverage. GT Biopharma's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.03 and 8.17, respectively. We have considered GT Biopharma's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GT Biopharma is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GT Biopharma is based on 3 months time horizon.
GT Biopharma Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as GT Biopharma is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GT Biopharma backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GT Biopharma, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.55 | 7.47 | 0.04 | 0.26 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.74 | 0.70 | 5.41 |
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GT Biopharma Hype Timeline
GT Biopharma is currently traded for 0.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.26. GTBP is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.7. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -5.41%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.55%. The volatility of related hype on GT Biopharma is about 1582.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.48. The company recorded a loss per share of 3.5. GT Biopharma last dividend was issued on the 21st of August 2017. The entity had 1:30 split on the 5th of February 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GT Biopharma to cross-verify your projections.GT Biopharma Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GT Biopharma's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GT Biopharma's future price movements. Getting to know how GT Biopharma's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GT Biopharma may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ARTL | Artelo Biosciences | 0.43 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.86 | (11.25) | 43.34 | |
| PTIX | Protagenic Therapeutics | 0.17 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 12.73 | (15.25) | 58.73 | |
| CARM | Carisma Therapeutics | (0.35) | 21 per month | 9.20 | 0.07 | 22.92 | (14.06) | 62.59 | |
| SLRX | Salarius Pharmaceuticals | (0.02) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 16.00 | (16.92) | 61.05 | |
| WINT | Windtree Therapeutics | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 20.00 | (20.00) | 58.33 | |
| PBM | Psyence Biomedical Ltd | (5.17) | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 8.10 | (13.79) | 96.66 | |
| SLXN | Biomotion Sciences Ordinary | 0.41 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 15.09 | (8.19) | 37.24 | |
| LIPO | Lipella Pharmaceuticals Common | (0.06) | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 17.14 | (16.00) | 44.95 | |
| DRMA | Dermata Therapeutics | (0.15) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 16.18 | (12.50) | 37.70 | |
| REVB | Revelation Biosciences | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 5.56 | (8.70) | 34.24 |
Other Forecasting Options for GT Biopharma
For every potential investor in GTBP, whether a beginner or expert, GT Biopharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GTBP Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GTBP. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GT Biopharma's price trends.GT Biopharma Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GT Biopharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GT Biopharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GT Biopharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GT Biopharma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GT Biopharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GT Biopharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GT Biopharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GT Biopharma entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
GT Biopharma Risk Indicators
The analysis of GT Biopharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GT Biopharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gtbp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.4 | |||
| Variance | 54.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 56.14 | |||
| Semi Variance | 46.35 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.37) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GT Biopharma
The number of cover stories for GT Biopharma depends on current market conditions and GT Biopharma's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GT Biopharma is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GT Biopharma's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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GT Biopharma Short Properties
GT Biopharma's future price predictability will typically decrease when GT Biopharma's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of GT Biopharma often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential GT Biopharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GT Biopharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4 M |
Additional Tools for GTBP Stock Analysis
When running GT Biopharma's price analysis, check to measure GT Biopharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GT Biopharma is operating at the current time. Most of GT Biopharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GT Biopharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GT Biopharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GT Biopharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.