Gran Tierra Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GTE Stock | CAD 7.15 0.39 5.77% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gran Tierra Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 7.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.66. Gran Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Gran Tierra's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Gran Tierra's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Gran Tierra fundamentals over time.
As of today the value of relative strength index of Gran Tierra's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.81) | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.07) | EPS Estimate Next Year (3.15) | Wall Street Target Price 7.3663 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.43) |
Using Gran Tierra hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gran Tierra Energy from the perspective of Gran Tierra response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gran Tierra Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 7.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.66. Gran Tierra after-hype prediction price | CAD 7.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Gran |
Gran Tierra Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gran price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gran using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gran charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gran Tierra Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gran Tierra Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 7.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gran Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gran Tierra's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gran Tierra Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gran Tierra | Gran Tierra Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Gran Tierra Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gran Tierra's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gran Tierra's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.18 and 11.12, respectively. We have considered Gran Tierra's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gran Tierra stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gran Tierra stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0308 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1748 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0296 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.66 |
Predictive Modules for Gran Tierra
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gran Tierra Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gran Tierra After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gran Tierra at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gran Tierra or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gran Tierra, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gran Tierra Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gran Tierra's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gran Tierra's historical news coverage. Gran Tierra's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.18 and 11.12, respectively. We have considered Gran Tierra's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gran Tierra is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gran Tierra Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gran Tierra Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gran Tierra is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gran Tierra backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gran Tierra, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.52 | 3.97 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.15 | 7.15 | 0.00 |
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Gran Tierra Hype Timeline
Gran Tierra Energy is currently traded for 7.15on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Gran is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.52%. %. The volatility of related hype on Gran Tierra is about 6616.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.18. About 50.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.47. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Gran Tierra Energy has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.23. The entity recorded a loss per share of 3.54. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Gran Tierra had 1:10 split on the 8th of May 2023. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gran Tierra to cross-verify your projections.Gran Tierra Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gran Tierra's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gran Tierra's future price movements. Getting to know how Gran Tierra's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gran Tierra may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RECO | Reconnaissance Energy Africa | (0.02) | 6 per month | 4.65 | 0.14 | 13.79 | (7.55) | 51.23 | |
| AEC | Anfield Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.58 | 0.05 | 13.70 | (8.55) | 27.48 | |
| ACX | ACT Energy Technologies | 0.12 | 4 per month | 2.80 | 0.07 | 4.63 | (5.00) | 12.63 | |
| SHLE | Source Energy Services | 0.45 | 9 per month | 2.85 | 0.16 | 5.51 | (3.74) | 18.76 | |
| SEI | Sintana Energy | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.00 | (5.66) | 32.08 | |
| HME | Hemisphere Energy | (0.01) | 3 per month | 1.92 | (0.01) | 3.05 | (2.79) | 12.29 | |
| KEI | Kolibri Global Energy | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.24 | (3.85) | 10.68 | |
| TPL | Tethys Petroleum | 0.07 | 5 per month | 5.81 | 0.04 | 13.08 | (6.90) | 60.16 | |
| QEC | Questerre Energy | 0.00 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.67 | (6.25) | 20.80 | |
| PSD | Pulse Seismic | (0.01) | 1 per month | 2.40 | 0.06 | 4.68 | (2.95) | 12.36 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gran Tierra
For every potential investor in Gran, whether a beginner or expert, Gran Tierra's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gran Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gran. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gran Tierra's price trends.Gran Tierra Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gran Tierra stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gran Tierra could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gran Tierra by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gran Tierra Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gran Tierra stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gran Tierra shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gran Tierra stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gran Tierra Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2428.43 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.344828 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.06 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.06 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.09 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.29 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.39 |
Gran Tierra Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gran Tierra's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gran Tierra's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gran stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.92 | |||
| Variance | 15.4 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.93 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.17 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.32) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gran Tierra
The number of cover stories for Gran Tierra depends on current market conditions and Gran Tierra's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gran Tierra is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gran Tierra's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Gran Tierra Short Properties
Gran Tierra's future price predictability will typically decrease when Gran Tierra's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Gran Tierra Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Gran Tierra's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gran Tierra's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 103.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gran Tierra to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.