Garrett Motion Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| GTX Stock | USD 21.25 0.65 3.16% |
Garrett Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Garrett Motion's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Garrett Motion hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Garrett Motion from the perspective of Garrett Motion response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Garrett Motion on the next trading day is expected to be 19.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.84. Garrett Motion after-hype prediction price | USD 21.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Garrett Motion to cross-verify your projections. Garrett Motion Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Garrett price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Garrett using various technical indicators. When you analyze Garrett charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Garrett Motion Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 16th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Garrett Motion on the next trading day is expected to be 19.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Garrett Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Garrett Motion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Garrett Motion Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Garrett Motion | Garrett Motion Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Garrett Motion Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Garrett Motion's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Garrett Motion's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.82 and 21.66, respectively. We have considered Garrett Motion's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Garrett Motion stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Garrett Motion stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9263 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3908 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0212 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.8369 |
Predictive Modules for Garrett Motion
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Garrett Motion. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Garrett Motion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Garrett Motion After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Garrett Motion at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Garrett Motion or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Garrett Motion, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Garrett Motion Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Garrett Motion's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Garrett Motion's historical news coverage. Garrett Motion's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.53 and 23.37, respectively. We have considered Garrett Motion's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Garrett Motion is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Garrett Motion is based on 3 months time horizon.
Garrett Motion Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Garrett Motion is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Garrett Motion backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Garrett Motion, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.44 | 1.92 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.25 | 21.45 | 0.94 |
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Garrett Motion Hype Timeline
On the 15th of February 2026 Garrett Motion is traded for 21.25. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. Garrett is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 21.45 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.94%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.44%. The volatility of related hype on Garrett Motion is about 3840.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.23. The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.48 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 282 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 728 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Garrett Motion to cross-verify your projections.Garrett Motion Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Garrett Motion's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Garrett Motion's future price movements. Getting to know how Garrett Motion's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Garrett Motion may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VC | Visteon Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.77 | 0.01 | 4.40 | (2.78) | 8.70 | |
| RUSHA | Rush Enterprises A | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.85 | 0.34 | 4.15 | (1.59) | 10.82 | |
| DORM | Dorman Products | 0.24 | 16 per month | 1.08 | (0.02) | 2.91 | (1.98) | 6.25 | |
| HOG | Harley Davidson | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.65 | (3.31) | 9.53 | |
| CARG | CarGurus | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 2.03 | (2.97) | 13.79 | |
| PVH | PVH Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.51 | (4.38) | 17.23 | |
| HSAI | Hesai Group Sponsored | (0.69) | 12 per month | 4.14 | 0.04 | 9.94 | (8.17) | 28.14 | |
| DAN | Dana Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.80 | 0.32 | 5.01 | (2.54) | 13.40 | |
| MHO | MI Homes | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.30 | 0.12 | 4.51 | (2.10) | 10.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for Garrett Motion
For every potential investor in Garrett, whether a beginner or expert, Garrett Motion's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Garrett Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Garrett. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Garrett Motion's price trends.Garrett Motion Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Garrett Motion stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Garrett Motion could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Garrett Motion by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Garrett Motion Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Garrett Motion stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Garrett Motion shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Garrett Motion stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Garrett Motion entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Garrett Motion Risk Indicators
The analysis of Garrett Motion's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Garrett Motion's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting garrett stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Variance | 3.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.55 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.74) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Garrett Motion
The number of cover stories for Garrett Motion depends on current market conditions and Garrett Motion's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Garrett Motion is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Garrett Motion's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Garrett Motion Short Properties
Garrett Motion's future price predictability will typically decrease when Garrett Motion's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Garrett Motion often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Garrett Motion's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Garrett Motion's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 224.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 126 M |
Additional Tools for Garrett Stock Analysis
When running Garrett Motion's price analysis, check to measure Garrett Motion's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Garrett Motion is operating at the current time. Most of Garrett Motion's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Garrett Motion's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Garrett Motion's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Garrett Motion to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.