WW Grainger Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GWW Stock | 959.40 24.40 2.61% |
GWW Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of WW Grainger's share price is at 54. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling WW Grainger, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using WW Grainger hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of WW Grainger from the perspective of WW Grainger response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of WW Grainger on the next trading day is expected to be 954.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 713.01. WW Grainger after-hype prediction price | EUR 939.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
GWW |
WW Grainger Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GWW price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GWW using various technical indicators. When you analyze GWW charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
WW Grainger Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of WW Grainger on the next trading day is expected to be 954.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.08, mean absolute percentage error of 378.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 713.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GWW Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that WW Grainger's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
WW Grainger Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest WW Grainger | WW Grainger Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
WW Grainger Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting WW Grainger's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. WW Grainger's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 952.29 and 956.41, respectively. We have considered WW Grainger's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of WW Grainger stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent WW Grainger stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -4.8745 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 12.0848 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0132 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 713.0061 |
Predictive Modules for WW Grainger
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as WW Grainger. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of WW Grainger's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
WW Grainger After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of WW Grainger at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in WW Grainger or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of WW Grainger, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
WW Grainger Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting WW Grainger's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on WW Grainger's historical news coverage. WW Grainger's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 841.50 and 941.94, respectively. We have considered WW Grainger's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
WW Grainger is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of WW Grainger is based on 3 months time horizon.
WW Grainger Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as WW Grainger is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading WW Grainger backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with WW Grainger, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 2.06 | 4.88 | 0.11 | 5 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
959.40 | 939.88 | 0.52 |
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WW Grainger Hype Timeline
WW Grainger is currently traded for 959.40on Stuttgart Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 4.88, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. GWW is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 939.88 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 10.97%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 0.52%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on WW Grainger is about 496.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 959.29. The company reported the revenue of 17.17 B. Net Income was 1.91 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of WW Grainger to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy GWW Stock please use our How to Invest in WW Grainger guide.WW Grainger Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to WW Grainger's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict WW Grainger's future price movements. Getting to know how WW Grainger's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how WW Grainger may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NVD | NVIDIA | 0.52 | 11 per month | 1.91 | (0.03) | 2.80 | (3.15) | 11.01 | |
| NVD | NVIDIA | 9.58 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.36 | (4.12) | 8.65 | |
| NVDG | NVIDIA P CDR | (0.40) | 1 per month | 2.63 | 0.01 | 4.88 | (3.85) | 12.01 | |
| APC8 | APPLE INC CDR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.36 | (0.04) | 3.64 | (2.59) | 9.65 | |
| APC | Apple Inc | 1.25 | 8 per month | 1.38 | (0.08) | 2.43 | (2.08) | 9.28 | |
| APC | Apple Inc | 0.95 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.62 | (2.11) | 7.96 | |
| ABEC | Alphabet | (3.95) | 11 per month | 1.25 | (0.05) | 2.41 | (2.27) | 7.95 | |
| ABEA | Alphabet Class A | (4.40) | 9 per month | 1.36 | (0.03) | 2.52 | (2.44) | 9.71 | |
| ABEC | Alphabet | (4.00) | 9 per month | 1.27 | (0.07) | 2.84 | (2.46) | 7.76 | |
| ABEA | Alphabet Class A | (3.70) | 10 per month | 1.37 | (0.06) | 2.79 | (2.46) | 8.07 |
Other Forecasting Options for WW Grainger
For every potential investor in GWW, whether a beginner or expert, WW Grainger's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GWW Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GWW. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying WW Grainger's price trends.WW Grainger Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with WW Grainger stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of WW Grainger could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing WW Grainger by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
WW Grainger Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how WW Grainger stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading WW Grainger shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying WW Grainger stock market strength indicators, traders can identify WW Grainger entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
WW Grainger Risk Indicators
The analysis of WW Grainger's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in WW Grainger's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gww stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Variance | 4.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.45 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.99 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for WW Grainger
The number of cover stories for WW Grainger depends on current market conditions and WW Grainger's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that WW Grainger is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about WW Grainger's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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WW Grainger Short Properties
WW Grainger's future price predictability will typically decrease when WW Grainger's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of WW Grainger often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential WW Grainger's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. WW Grainger's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.3 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 421 M |
Additional Tools for GWW Stock Analysis
When running WW Grainger's price analysis, check to measure WW Grainger's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy WW Grainger is operating at the current time. Most of WW Grainger's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of WW Grainger's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move WW Grainger's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of WW Grainger to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.