GXO Logistics Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GXO Stock | USD 56.59 1.32 2.28% |
GXO Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of GXO Logistics' share price is at 52. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling GXO Logistics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using GXO Logistics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GXO Logistics from the perspective of GXO Logistics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GXO Logistics on the next trading day is expected to be 56.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.78. GXO Logistics after-hype prediction price | USD 56.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GXO Logistics to cross-verify your projections. GXO Logistics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GXO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GXO using various technical indicators. When you analyze GXO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
GXO Logistics Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GXO Logistics on the next trading day is expected to be 56.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75, mean absolute percentage error of 0.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GXO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GXO Logistics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GXO Logistics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GXO Logistics | GXO Logistics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
GXO Logistics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GXO Logistics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GXO Logistics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 54.80 and 58.38, respectively. We have considered GXO Logistics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GXO Logistics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GXO Logistics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1846 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0203 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7463 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0141 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 44.78 |
Predictive Modules for GXO Logistics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GXO Logistics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GXO Logistics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
GXO Logistics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GXO Logistics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GXO Logistics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of GXO Logistics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GXO Logistics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GXO Logistics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GXO Logistics' historical news coverage. GXO Logistics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 54.80 and 58.38, respectively. We have considered GXO Logistics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GXO Logistics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GXO Logistics is based on 3 months time horizon.
GXO Logistics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as GXO Logistics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GXO Logistics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GXO Logistics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.79 | 0.28 | 0.09 | 16 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 16 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
56.59 | 56.59 | 0.00 |
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GXO Logistics Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February GXO Logistics is traded for 56.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.28, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. GXO is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 31.96%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on GXO Logistics is about 99.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 56.68. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of GXO Logistics was currently reported as 25.81. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.6. GXO Logistics had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 16 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GXO Logistics to cross-verify your projections.GXO Logistics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GXO Logistics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GXO Logistics' future price movements. Getting to know how GXO Logistics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GXO Logistics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ROAD | Construction Partners | (1.59) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.84 | (4.23) | 7.84 | |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc | 6.21 | 9 per month | 0.81 | 0.27 | 3.81 | (1.72) | 11.04 | |
| REZI | Resideo Technologies | (0.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.79 | (4.26) | 23.75 | |
| MSA | MSA Safety | 2.01 | 9 per month | 1.61 | 0.04 | 3.11 | (2.05) | 11.36 | |
| HXL | Hexcel | (0.69) | 4 per month | 1.68 | 0.08 | 2.82 | (2.67) | 7.72 | |
| PONY | Pony AI American | 4.33 | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 10.83 | (8.03) | 22.01 | |
| MIDD | Middleby Corp | 6.71 | 8 per month | 1.62 | 0.07 | 3.85 | (3.10) | 12.68 | |
| R | Ryder System | 0.01 | 5 per month | 1.53 | 0.10 | 3.54 | (3.01) | 8.43 | |
| AMTM | Amentum Holdings | (0.69) | 4 per month | 1.38 | 0.20 | 4.58 | (2.63) | 21.59 |
Other Forecasting Options for GXO Logistics
For every potential investor in GXO, whether a beginner or expert, GXO Logistics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GXO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GXO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GXO Logistics' price trends.GXO Logistics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GXO Logistics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GXO Logistics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GXO Logistics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GXO Logistics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GXO Logistics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GXO Logistics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GXO Logistics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GXO Logistics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
GXO Logistics Risk Indicators
The analysis of GXO Logistics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GXO Logistics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gxo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Variance | 3.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.73 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.37) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GXO Logistics
The number of cover stories for GXO Logistics depends on current market conditions and GXO Logistics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GXO Logistics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GXO Logistics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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GXO Logistics Short Properties
GXO Logistics' future price predictability will typically decrease when GXO Logistics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of GXO Logistics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential GXO Logistics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GXO Logistics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 119.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 413 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GXO Logistics to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in GXO Stock, please use our How to Invest in GXO Logistics guide.You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could GXO diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of GXO Logistics. Market participants price GXO higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every GXO Logistics data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of GXO Logistics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GXO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GXO Logistics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GXO Logistics' true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because GXO Logistics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GXO Logistics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GXO Logistics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GXO Logistics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, GXO Logistics' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.