HAL Trust Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| HAL Stock | EUR 165.80 0.60 0.36% |
HAL Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of HAL Trust's share price is above 70 at this time. This usually indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling HAL, making its price go up or down. Momentum 78
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.008 | EPS Estimate Current Year 14.5 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.56 | Wall Street Target Price 177 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.093 |
Using HAL Trust hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of HAL Trust from the perspective of HAL Trust response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of HAL Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 166.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.30. HAL Trust after-hype prediction price | EUR 166.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
HAL |
HAL Trust Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine HAL price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for HAL using various technical indicators. When you analyze HAL charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
HAL Trust Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of HAL Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 166.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12, mean absolute percentage error of 2.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HAL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HAL Trust's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
HAL Trust Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest HAL Trust | HAL Trust Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
HAL Trust Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting HAL Trust's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HAL Trust's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 165.05 and 167.07, respectively. We have considered HAL Trust's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HAL Trust stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HAL Trust stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9611 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1197 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0076 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 68.2989 |
Predictive Modules for HAL Trust
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HAL Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.HAL Trust After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of HAL Trust at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in HAL Trust or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of HAL Trust, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
HAL Trust Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting HAL Trust's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on HAL Trust's historical news coverage. HAL Trust's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 165.03 and 167.05, respectively. We have considered HAL Trust's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
HAL Trust is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of HAL Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
HAL Trust Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as HAL Trust is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading HAL Trust backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with HAL Trust, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 1.01 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 2 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
165.80 | 166.04 | 0.14 |
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HAL Trust Hype Timeline
HAL Trust is currently traded for 165.80on Euronext Amsterdam of Netherlands. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.24, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. HAL is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 166.04 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 126.25%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.14%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on HAL Trust is about 3156.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 165.79. The company reported the revenue of 12.51 B. Net Income was 1.74 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 8.1 B. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HAL Trust to cross-verify your projections.HAL Trust Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to HAL Trust's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict HAL Trust's future price movements. Getting to know how HAL Trust's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how HAL Trust may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FLOW | Flow Traders BV | (0.20) | 6 per month | 1.34 | 0.10 | 2.53 | (1.84) | 7.91 | |
| VLK | Van Lanschot NV | (0.70) | 1 per month | 1.32 | (0.04) | 1.96 | (1.91) | 8.43 | |
| ECT | Eurocastle Investment | 0.90 | 1 per month | 3.64 | 0.12 | 10.00 | (8.00) | 41.84 | |
| LVIDE | Lavide Holding NV | 0.01 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.08 | (3.92) | 8.00 | |
| AGN | Aegon NV | (0.17) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.33 | (2.68) | 12.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for HAL Trust
For every potential investor in HAL, whether a beginner or expert, HAL Trust's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HAL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HAL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HAL Trust's price trends.HAL Trust Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HAL Trust stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HAL Trust could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HAL Trust by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HAL Trust Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how HAL Trust stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading HAL Trust shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying HAL Trust stock market strength indicators, traders can identify HAL Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
HAL Trust Risk Indicators
The analysis of HAL Trust's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HAL Trust's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6675 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4593 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9951 | |||
| Variance | 0.9903 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8129 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2109 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.81) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for HAL Trust
The number of cover stories for HAL Trust depends on current market conditions and HAL Trust's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that HAL Trust is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about HAL Trust's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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HAL Trust Short Properties
HAL Trust's future price predictability will typically decrease when HAL Trust's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of HAL Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential HAL Trust's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. HAL Trust's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 90.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.3 B |
Additional Tools for HAL Stock Analysis
When running HAL Trust's price analysis, check to measure HAL Trust's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy HAL Trust is operating at the current time. Most of HAL Trust's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of HAL Trust's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move HAL Trust's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of HAL Trust to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.