Habib Bank Stock Forward View
| HBL-CFEB | 347.53 6.68 1.96% |
Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Habib Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Habib Bank from the perspective of Habib Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Habib Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 333.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 242.79. Habib Bank after-hype prediction price | PKR 347.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Habib |
Habib Bank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Habib price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Habib using various technical indicators. When you analyze Habib charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Habib Bank Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Habib Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 333.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.65, mean absolute percentage error of 51.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 242.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Habib Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Habib Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Habib Bank Stock Forecast Pattern
Habib Bank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Habib Bank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Habib Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 331.75 and 334.79, respectively. We have considered Habib Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Habib Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Habib Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 88.9672 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.6463 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0164 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 242.7889 |
Predictive Modules for Habib Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Habib Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Habib Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Habib Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Habib Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Habib Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Habib Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Habib Bank Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Habib Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Habib Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Habib Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
347.53 | 347.53 | 0.00 |
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Habib Bank Hype Timeline
Habib Bank is currently traded for 347.53on Karachi Stock Exchange of Pakistan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Habib is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.2%. %. The volatility of related hype on Habib Bank is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 347.53. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment.Habib Bank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Habib Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Habib Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how Habib Bank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Habib Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EFERT-CMAR | Engro Fertert | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.29 | 0.09 | 3.97 | (1.88) | 12.02 | |
| NRL | National Refinery | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.08 | 0.11 | 6.59 | (4.12) | 14.73 | |
| HICL | Habib Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.61 | 0.01 | 2.83 | (2.60) | 8.79 | |
| GAL | Ghandhara Automobile | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.61 | (1.74) | 5.93 | |
| SMCPL | Safe Mix Concrete | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.92 | 0.06 | 7.87 | (4.35) | 19.71 | |
| SHDT | Shadab Textile Mills | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.53 | (3.75) | 10.60 | |
| TCORPCPS | Tariq CorpPref | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.28 | 0.11 | 10.36 | (7.37) | 20.45 | |
| CENI | Century Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.81 | 0.06 | 3.56 | (4.07) | 12.59 | |
| HBLTETF | HBL Total TreasuryXD | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.38 | 0.01 | 0.69 | (0.49) | 4.34 | |
| REWM | Reliance Weaving Mills | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.04 | 0.25 | 9.98 | (5.79) | 17.70 |
Other Forecasting Options for Habib Bank
For every potential investor in Habib, whether a beginner or expert, Habib Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Habib Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Habib. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Habib Bank's price trends.Habib Bank Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Habib Bank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Habib Bank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Habib Bank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Habib Bank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Habib Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Habib Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Habib Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Habib Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 347.53 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 347.53 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 3.34 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 6.68 |
Habib Bank Risk Indicators
The analysis of Habib Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Habib Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting habib stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9055 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Variance | 2.36 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.19 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.34) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Habib Bank
The number of cover stories for Habib Bank depends on current market conditions and Habib Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Habib Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Habib Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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