Hartford Capital Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HCAYX Fund | USD 58.78 0.37 0.63% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Hartford Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 58.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.74. Hartford Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Hartford Capital's share price is at 57. This usually indicates that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Hartford Capital, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Hartford Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Hartford Capital from the perspective of Hartford Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Hartford Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 58.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.74. Hartford Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 58.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Hartford |
Hartford Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hartford price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hartford using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hartford charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hartford Capital Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Hartford Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 58.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hartford Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hartford Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hartford Capital Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hartford Capital | Hartford Capital Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Hartford Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hartford Capital's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hartford Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 57.75 and 59.81, respectively. We have considered Hartford Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hartford Capital mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hartford Capital mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0099 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0695 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3728 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0066 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.74 |
Predictive Modules for Hartford Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hartford Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hartford Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hartford Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hartford Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hartford Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Hartford Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hartford Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hartford Capital's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hartford Capital's historical news coverage. Hartford Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 57.75 and 59.81, respectively. We have considered Hartford Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hartford Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hartford Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hartford Capital Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Hartford Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hartford Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hartford Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.03 | 3.37 | 0.00 | 1 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
58.78 | 58.78 | 0.00 |
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Hartford Capital Hype Timeline
Hartford Capital is currently traded for 58.78. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -3.37, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Hartford is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 3.36%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Hartford Capital is about 18025.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 58.78. The company last dividend was issued on the 27th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hartford Capital to cross-verify your projections.Hartford Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hartford Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hartford Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Hartford Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hartford Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SMYIX | Qs Global Equity | (0.15) | 1 per month | 0.53 | 0.08 | 1.16 | (1.16) | 7.76 | |
| DBIWX | Dws Global Macro | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.24 | (0.14) | 0.70 | (0.62) | 1.44 | |
| TBCUX | Tweedy Browne Global | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.21 | 0.1 | 1.08 | (1.06) | 8.54 | |
| ZGFIX | Investec Global Franchise | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.36 | 0.07 | 1.24 | (0.88) | 10.50 | |
| HRLAX | The Hartford Global | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.09 | (0.01) | 0.72 | (0.53) | 1.47 | |
| DODWX | Dodge Global Stock | 0.11 | 1 per month | 0.35 | 0.10 | 1.28 | (0.91) | 9.17 | |
| GMADX | Gmo Global Equity | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.45 | 0.09 | 1.35 | (1.10) | 3.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for Hartford Capital
For every potential investor in Hartford, whether a beginner or expert, Hartford Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hartford Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hartford. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hartford Capital's price trends.Hartford Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hartford Capital mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hartford Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hartford Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hartford Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hartford Capital mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hartford Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hartford Capital mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify The Hartford Capital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 58.78 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 58.78 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.19 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.37 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 57.78 |
Hartford Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hartford Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hartford Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hartford mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.652 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.709 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Variance | 1.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8356 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5026 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Hartford Capital
The number of cover stories for Hartford Capital depends on current market conditions and Hartford Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hartford Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hartford Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Hartford Mutual Fund
Hartford Capital financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hartford Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hartford with respect to the benefits of owning Hartford Capital security.
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