HUTCHMED DRC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| HCM Stock | USD 13.65 0.32 2.40% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of HUTCHMED DRC on the next trading day is expected to be 13.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.94. HUTCHMED Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although HUTCHMED DRC's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of HUTCHMED DRC's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of HUTCHMED DRC fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of HUTCHMED DRC's share price is approaching 34. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling HUTCHMED DRC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 34
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 16.333 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.452 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.4603 | Wall Street Target Price 22.5848 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
Using HUTCHMED DRC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of HUTCHMED DRC from the perspective of HUTCHMED DRC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards HUTCHMED DRC using HUTCHMED DRC's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards HUTCHMED using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of HUTCHMED DRC's stock price.
HUTCHMED DRC Short Interest
An investor who is long HUTCHMED DRC may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about HUTCHMED DRC and may potentially protect profits, hedge HUTCHMED DRC with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 15.2237 | Short Percent 0.0038 | Short Ratio 15.45 | Shares Short Prior Month 399 K | 50 Day MA 14.2837 |
HUTCHMED DRC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to HUTCHMED DRC's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in HUTCHMED. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding HUTCHMED can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around HUTCHMED DRC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of HUTCHMED DRC's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about HUTCHMED DRC.
HUTCHMED DRC Implied Volatility | 2.24 |
HUTCHMED DRC's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of HUTCHMED DRC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if HUTCHMED DRC's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that HUTCHMED DRC stock will not fluctuate a lot when HUTCHMED DRC's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of HUTCHMED DRC on the next trading day is expected to be 13.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.94. HUTCHMED DRC after-hype prediction price | USD 13.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HUTCHMED DRC to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 HUTCHMED Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast HUTCHMED DRC's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in HUTCHMED DRC's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for HUTCHMED DRC stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current HUTCHMED DRC's open interest, investors have to compare it to HUTCHMED DRC's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of HUTCHMED DRC is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in HUTCHMED. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
HUTCHMED DRC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine HUTCHMED price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for HUTCHMED using various technical indicators. When you analyze HUTCHMED charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
HUTCHMED DRC Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the HUTCHMED DRC's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2009-12-31 | Previous Quarter 110.7 M | Current Value 1.4 B | Quarterly Volatility 225.2 M |
HUTCHMED DRC Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of HUTCHMED DRC on the next trading day is expected to be 13.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HUTCHMED Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HUTCHMED DRC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
HUTCHMED DRC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest HUTCHMED DRC | HUTCHMED DRC Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
HUTCHMED DRC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting HUTCHMED DRC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HUTCHMED DRC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.96 and 15.29, respectively. We have considered HUTCHMED DRC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HUTCHMED DRC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HUTCHMED DRC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3612 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2121 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0146 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.9398 |
Predictive Modules for HUTCHMED DRC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HUTCHMED DRC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HUTCHMED DRC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for HUTCHMED DRC
For every potential investor in HUTCHMED, whether a beginner or expert, HUTCHMED DRC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HUTCHMED Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HUTCHMED. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HUTCHMED DRC's price trends.HUTCHMED DRC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HUTCHMED DRC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HUTCHMED DRC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HUTCHMED DRC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HUTCHMED DRC Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of HUTCHMED DRC's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of HUTCHMED DRC's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
HUTCHMED DRC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how HUTCHMED DRC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading HUTCHMED DRC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying HUTCHMED DRC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify HUTCHMED DRC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
HUTCHMED DRC Risk Indicators
The analysis of HUTCHMED DRC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HUTCHMED DRC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hutchmed stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Variance | 2.7 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ProphetCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HUTCHMED DRC to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in HUTCHMED Stock, please use our How to Invest in HUTCHMED DRC guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of HUTCHMED DRC. If investors know HUTCHMED will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about HUTCHMED DRC listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 16.333 | Earnings Share 2.65 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) | Return On Assets |
The market value of HUTCHMED DRC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of HUTCHMED that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of HUTCHMED DRC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is HUTCHMED DRC's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because HUTCHMED DRC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect HUTCHMED DRC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HUTCHMED DRC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HUTCHMED DRC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HUTCHMED DRC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.