Direxion Shares Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| HCMT Etf | 37.80 0.53 1.42% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Direxion Shares ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 37.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.77. Direxion Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Direxion |
Direxion Shares Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Direxion Shares ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 37.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Direxion Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Direxion Shares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Direxion Shares Etf Forecast Pattern
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Direxion Shares Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Direxion Shares' Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Direxion Shares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.07 and 39.41, respectively. We have considered Direxion Shares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Direxion Shares etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Direxion Shares etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.324 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5044 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0141 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.7671 |
Predictive Modules for Direxion Shares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Direxion Shares ETF. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Direxion Shares
For every potential investor in Direxion, whether a beginner or expert, Direxion Shares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Direxion Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Direxion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Direxion Shares' price trends.Direxion Shares Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Direxion Shares etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Direxion Shares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Direxion Shares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Direxion Shares ETF Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Direxion Shares' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Direxion Shares' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Direxion Shares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Direxion Shares etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Direxion Shares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Direxion Shares etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Direxion Shares ETF entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Direxion Shares Risk Indicators
The analysis of Direxion Shares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Direxion Shares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting direxion etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Variance | 3.1 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.3 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.88 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.21) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Thematic Opportunities
Explore Investment Opportunities
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Direxion Shares to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
The market value of Direxion Shares ETF is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Direxion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Direxion Shares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Direxion Shares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Direxion Shares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Direxion Shares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Direxion Shares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Direxion Shares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Direxion Shares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.