Government Fixed Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| HCUSX Fund | USD 8.59 0.02 0.23% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of The Government Fixed on the next trading day is expected to be 8.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.21. Government Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Government Fixed's share price is approaching 40. This usually indicates that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Government Fixed, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Government Fixed hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Government Fixed from the perspective of Government Fixed response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of The Government Fixed on the next trading day is expected to be 8.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.21. Government Fixed after-hype prediction price | USD 8.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Government |
Government Fixed Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Government price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Government using various technical indicators. When you analyze Government charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Government Fixed Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of The Government Fixed on the next trading day is expected to be 8.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Government Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Government Fixed's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Government Fixed Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
Government Fixed Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Government Fixed's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Government Fixed's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.37 and 8.80, respectively. We have considered Government Fixed's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Government Fixed mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Government Fixed mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.7229 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0199 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0023 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.2134 |
Predictive Modules for Government Fixed
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Government Fixed. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Government Fixed's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Government Fixed Estimiated After-Hype Price Prediction Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Government Fixed at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Government Fixed or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Government Fixed, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Government Fixed Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Government Fixed is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Government Fixed backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Government Fixed, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.59 | 8.59 | 0.00 |
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Government Fixed Hype Timeline
Government Fixed is currently traded for 8.59. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Government is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Government Fixed is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.59. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out fundamental analysis of Government Fixed to check your projections.Government Fixed Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Government Fixed's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Government Fixed's future price movements. Getting to know how Government Fixed's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Government Fixed may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BIGBX | Blackrock Government Bond | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.10 | (0.81) | 0.20 | (0.20) | 0.50 | |
| RYAQX | Inverse Government Long | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.29 | (0.06) | 1.00 | (0.61) | 1.98 | |
| GGTPX | Goldman Sachs Government | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.56) | 0.30 | (0.30) | 0.76 | |
| TWARX | Short Term Government Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (1.35) | 0.11 | (0.11) | 0.33 | |
| PYUSX | Payden Government Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.89) | 0.21 | (0.11) | 0.53 | |
| DNCGX | Dunham Porategovernment Bond | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.15 | (0.59) | 0.24 | (0.32) | 0.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for Government Fixed
For every potential investor in Government, whether a beginner or expert, Government Fixed's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Government Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Government. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Government Fixed's price trends.Government Fixed Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Government Fixed mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Government Fixed could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Government Fixed by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Government Fixed Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Government Fixed mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Government Fixed shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Government Fixed mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify The Government Fixed entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8.59 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 40.3 |
Government Fixed Risk Indicators
The analysis of Government Fixed's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Government Fixed's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting government mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1794 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2125 | |||
| Variance | 0.0451 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Government Fixed
The number of cover stories for Government Fixed depends on current market conditions and Government Fixed's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Government Fixed is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Government Fixed's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Government Mutual Fund
Government Fixed financial ratios help investors to determine whether Government Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Government with respect to the benefits of owning Government Fixed security.
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