HCW Biologics Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| HCWB Stock | USD 1.24 0.11 8.15% |
HCW Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast HCW Biologics stock prices and determine the direction of HCW Biologics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of HCW Biologics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the RSI of HCW Biologics' share price is approaching 33. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling HCW Biologics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 33
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (2.52) | EPS Estimate Next Year (4.13) | Wall Street Target Price 35 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.99) |
Using HCW Biologics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of HCW Biologics from the perspective of HCW Biologics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of HCW Biologics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.99. HCW Biologics after-hype prediction price | USD 1.24 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HCW Biologics to cross-verify your projections. HCW Biologics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine HCW price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for HCW using various technical indicators. When you analyze HCW charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
HCW Biologics Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of HCW Biologics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HCW Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HCW Biologics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
HCW Biologics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest HCW Biologics | HCW Biologics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
HCW Biologics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting HCW Biologics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HCW Biologics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 8.23, respectively. We have considered HCW Biologics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HCW Biologics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HCW Biologics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7572 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2741 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1484 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.9913 |
Predictive Modules for HCW Biologics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HCW Biologics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HCW Biologics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
HCW Biologics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of HCW Biologics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in HCW Biologics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of HCW Biologics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
HCW Biologics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting HCW Biologics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on HCW Biologics' historical news coverage. HCW Biologics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 8.72, respectively. We have considered HCW Biologics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
HCW Biologics is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of HCW Biologics is based on 3 months time horizon.
HCW Biologics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as HCW Biologics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading HCW Biologics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with HCW Biologics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.59 | 7.54 | 0.79 | 0.25 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.24 | 1.24 | 0.00 |
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HCW Biologics Hype Timeline
HCW Biologics is currently traded for 1.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.79, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.25. HCW is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -1.59%. %. The volatility of related hype on HCW Biologics is about 4712.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.99. About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 16.41. HCW Biologics had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:40 split on the 11th of April 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HCW Biologics to cross-verify your projections.HCW Biologics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to HCW Biologics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict HCW Biologics' future price movements. Getting to know how HCW Biologics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how HCW Biologics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| INAB | In8bio Inc | (0.03) | 8 per month | 4.93 | 0.03 | 14.29 | (9.18) | 37.96 | |
| NRSN | Neurosense Therapeutics | (0.03) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 12.82 | (7.48) | 34.62 | |
| ADIL | Adial Pharmaceuticals | 0.01 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 5.56 | (6.25) | 16.67 | |
| ACXP | Acurx Pharmaceuticals LLC | (0.01) | 19 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 10.84 | (9.84) | 49.19 | |
| RNAZ | Transcode Therapeutics | 0.15 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.35 | (8.21) | 29.47 | |
| CELZ | Creative Medical Technology | (0.16) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 9.31 | (11.22) | 50.90 | |
| BCDA | Biocardia | (0.06) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.93 | (5.76) | 21.46 | |
| BCLI | Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 9.09 | (6.67) | 24.01 | |
| APRE | Aprea Therapeutics | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 4.40 | (8.11) | 17.87 | |
| APVO | Aptevo Therapeutics | (1.44) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 7.81 | (9.42) | 45.42 |
Other Forecasting Options for HCW Biologics
For every potential investor in HCW, whether a beginner or expert, HCW Biologics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HCW Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HCW. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HCW Biologics' price trends.HCW Biologics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HCW Biologics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HCW Biologics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HCW Biologics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HCW Biologics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how HCW Biologics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading HCW Biologics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying HCW Biologics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify HCW Biologics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 16920.75 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.65) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.92 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.27 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.26 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.09) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.11) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 33.59 |
HCW Biologics Risk Indicators
The analysis of HCW Biologics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HCW Biologics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hcw stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.78 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.2 | |||
| Variance | 51.8 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for HCW Biologics
The number of cover stories for HCW Biologics depends on current market conditions and HCW Biologics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that HCW Biologics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about HCW Biologics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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HCW Biologics Short Properties
HCW Biologics' future price predictability will typically decrease when HCW Biologics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of HCW Biologics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential HCW Biologics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. HCW Biologics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HCW Biologics to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade HCW Stock refer to our How to Trade HCW Stock guide.You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of HCW Biologics. If investors know HCW will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about HCW Biologics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (16.41) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.99) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of HCW Biologics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of HCW that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of HCW Biologics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is HCW Biologics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because HCW Biologics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect HCW Biologics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HCW Biologics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HCW Biologics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HCW Biologics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.