Henderson Dividend Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression

HDIVX Fund  USD 19.08  0.09  0.47%   
Henderson Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Henderson Dividend's mutual fund price is slightly above 65. This usually indicates that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Henderson, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 65

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Henderson Dividend's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Henderson Dividend Income, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Henderson Dividend hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Henderson Dividend Income from the perspective of Henderson Dividend response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Henderson Dividend Income on the next trading day is expected to be 19.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.68.

Henderson Dividend after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 19.08  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Henderson Dividend to cross-verify your projections.

Henderson Dividend Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Henderson price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Henderson using various technical indicators. When you analyze Henderson charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Henderson Dividend price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Henderson Dividend Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Henderson Dividend Income on the next trading day is expected to be 19.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.68.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Henderson Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Henderson Dividend's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Henderson Dividend Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Henderson Dividend  Henderson Dividend Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Henderson Dividend Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Henderson Dividend's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Henderson Dividend's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.50 and 20.47, respectively. We have considered Henderson Dividend's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
19.08
19.49
Expected Value
20.47
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Henderson Dividend mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Henderson Dividend mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.7824
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2734
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0157
SAESum of the absolute errors16.6801
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Henderson Dividend Income historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Henderson Dividend

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Henderson Dividend Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Henderson Dividend's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.0919.0820.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.1720.4121.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
18.2618.8319.40
Details

Henderson Dividend After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Henderson Dividend at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Henderson Dividend or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Henderson Dividend, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Henderson Dividend Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Henderson Dividend's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Henderson Dividend's historical news coverage. Henderson Dividend's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.09 and 20.07, respectively. We have considered Henderson Dividend's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
19.08
19.08
After-hype Price
20.07
Upside
Henderson Dividend is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Henderson Dividend Income is based on 3 months time horizon.

Henderson Dividend Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Henderson Dividend is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Henderson Dividend backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Henderson Dividend, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.24 
0.99
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
19.08
19.08
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Henderson Dividend Hype Timeline

Henderson Dividend Income is currently traded for 19.08. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Henderson is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Henderson Dividend is about 5500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.08. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Henderson Dividend to cross-verify your projections.

Henderson Dividend Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Henderson Dividend's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Henderson Dividend's future price movements. Getting to know how Henderson Dividend's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Henderson Dividend may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
HDTVXJanus Henderson Div 0.13 1 per month 0.40  0.14  1.28 (0.89) 7.64 
HDQVXJanus Henderson Div 0.00 0 per month 0.42  0.14  1.22 (0.84) 7.71 
BDKNXBraddock Multi Strategy Income 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.18) 0.30 (0.15) 0.61 
ETNCXEaton Vance North 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.26) 0.24 (0.12) 0.59 
TNBIX1290 Smartbeta Equity 0.09 1 per month 0.38  0.07  0.89 (0.83) 5.18 
BNYBlackRock New York 0.01 9 per month 0.44 (0.09) 0.69 (0.69) 2.56 
SABASaba Capital Income(0.09)8 per month 0.00 (0.17) 0.85 (1.05) 3.55 
PFCOXPfg American Funds 0.00 0 per month 0.10 (0.18) 0.31 (0.30) 0.81 
FCTFirst Trust Senior 0.01 4 per month 0.20  0.08  0.85 (0.70) 6.13 
FTFFranklin Templeton Limited 0.03 6 per month 0.27  0.03  0.66 (0.67) 1.68 

Other Forecasting Options for Henderson Dividend

For every potential investor in Henderson, whether a beginner or expert, Henderson Dividend's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Henderson Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Henderson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Henderson Dividend's price trends.

Henderson Dividend Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Henderson Dividend mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Henderson Dividend could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Henderson Dividend by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Henderson Dividend Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Henderson Dividend mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Henderson Dividend shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Henderson Dividend mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Henderson Dividend Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Henderson Dividend Risk Indicators

The analysis of Henderson Dividend's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Henderson Dividend's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting henderson mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Henderson Dividend

The number of cover stories for Henderson Dividend depends on current market conditions and Henderson Dividend's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Henderson Dividend is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Henderson Dividend's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Henderson Mutual Fund

Henderson Dividend financial ratios help investors to determine whether Henderson Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Henderson with respect to the benefits of owning Henderson Dividend security.
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