Hennessy Equity Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression

HEIFX Fund  USD 13.61  0.02  0.15%   
Hennessy Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Hennessy Equity's share price is above 70 at this time. This usually indicates that the mutual fund is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Hennessy, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 70

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Hennessy Equity's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Hennessy Equity And, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Hennessy Equity hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hennessy Equity And from the perspective of Hennessy Equity response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Hennessy Equity And on the next trading day is expected to be 14.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.04.

Hennessy Equity after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 14.02  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hennessy Equity to cross-verify your projections.

Hennessy Equity Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Hennessy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hennessy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hennessy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Hennessy Equity price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Hennessy Equity Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Hennessy Equity And on the next trading day is expected to be 14.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.04.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hennessy Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hennessy Equity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hennessy Equity Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Hennessy Equity  Hennessy Equity Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Hennessy Equity Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hennessy Equity's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hennessy Equity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.42 and 15.79, respectively. We have considered Hennessy Equity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.61
14.10
Expected Value
15.79
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hennessy Equity mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hennessy Equity mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.3674
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3449
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0271
SAESum of the absolute errors21.0376
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Hennessy Equity And historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Hennessy Equity

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hennessy Equity And. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.3414.0215.70
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.7013.3815.06
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.2413.4513.66
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hennessy Equity. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hennessy Equity's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hennessy Equity's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hennessy Equity And.

Hennessy Equity After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Hennessy Equity at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hennessy Equity or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Hennessy Equity, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Hennessy Equity Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Hennessy Equity's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hennessy Equity's historical news coverage. Hennessy Equity's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.34 and 15.70, respectively. We have considered Hennessy Equity's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
13.61
14.02
After-hype Price
15.70
Upside
Hennessy Equity is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hennessy Equity And is based on 3 months time horizon.

Hennessy Equity Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Hennessy Equity is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hennessy Equity backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hennessy Equity, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.29 
1.68
  0.41 
  0.56 
2 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
13.61
14.02
3.01 
119.15  
Notes

Hennessy Equity Hype Timeline

Hennessy Equity And is currently traded for 13.61. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.41, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.56. Hennessy is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 14.02 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 119.15%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 3.01%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Hennessy Equity is about 86.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.05. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hennessy Equity to cross-verify your projections.

Hennessy Equity Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Hennessy Equity's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hennessy Equity's future price movements. Getting to know how Hennessy Equity's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hennessy Equity may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SILVXSummit Global Investments 0.00 0 per month 0.45  0.09  1.15 (0.83) 2.82 
MFMMFS Municipal Income(0.05)8 per month 0.51 (0) 0.93 (1.09) 3.17 
SDVSXSit Dividend Growth 0.00 0 per month 0.40  0.12  1.01 (1.06) 11.34 
SDVGXSit Dividend Growth 0.00 0 per month 0.42  0.12  1.01 (1.12) 11.18 
SIMYXSimt Tax Managed International 0.04 1 per month 0.19  0.16  0.91 (0.69) 2.08 
CRAAXColumbia Adaptive Risk 0.00 0 per month 0.39  0.03  0.68 (0.66) 2.14 
DOPIXDreyfus Opportunistic Small(22.47)6 per month 0.84  0.06  2.27 (1.67) 4.25 
EMFIXAshmore Emerging Markets 0.00 0 per month 0.40  0.20  1.56 (1.13) 3.54 
EMEAXAshmore Emerging Markets(1.23)1 per month 0.39  0.19  1.57 (1.09) 3.61 
RYVFXRoyce Small Cap Value 4.25 3 per month 0.60  0.13  2.35 (1.27) 12.98 

Other Forecasting Options for Hennessy Equity

For every potential investor in Hennessy, whether a beginner or expert, Hennessy Equity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hennessy Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hennessy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hennessy Equity's price trends.

Hennessy Equity Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hennessy Equity mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hennessy Equity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hennessy Equity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hennessy Equity Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hennessy Equity mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hennessy Equity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hennessy Equity mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Hennessy Equity And entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hennessy Equity Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hennessy Equity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hennessy Equity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hennessy mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Hennessy Equity

The number of cover stories for Hennessy Equity depends on current market conditions and Hennessy Equity's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hennessy Equity is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hennessy Equity's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Hennessy Mutual Fund

Hennessy Equity financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hennessy Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hennessy with respect to the benefits of owning Hennessy Equity security.
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