Helen Of Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| HELE Stock | USD 17.64 0.00 0.00% |
Helen Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Helen Of stock prices and determine the direction of Helen of Troy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Helen Of's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Helen Of's share price is approaching 39. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Helen Of, making its price go up or down. Momentum 39
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.249 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.4721 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.382 | Wall Street Target Price 28 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.6781 |
Using Helen Of hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Helen of Troy from the perspective of Helen Of response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Helen Of using Helen Of's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Helen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Helen Of's stock price.
Helen Of Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Helen Of's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Helen. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Helen Of stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 24.0728 | Short Percent 0.1541 | Short Ratio 2.31 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.7 M | 50 Day MA 19.777 |
Helen Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Helen of Troy on the next trading day is expected to be 19.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.10.Helen of Troy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Helen Of's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Helen. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Helen can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Helen of Troy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Helen Of's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Helen Of.
Helen Of Implied Volatility | 0.75 |
Helen Of's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Helen of Troy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Helen Of's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Helen Of stock will not fluctuate a lot when Helen Of's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Helen of Troy on the next trading day is expected to be 19.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.10. Helen Of after-hype prediction price | USD 17.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Helen Of to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Helen contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Helen of Troy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0469% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Helen Of trading at USD 17.64, that is roughly USD 0.008269 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Helen Of's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Helen of Troy options at the current volatility level of 0.75%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Helen Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Helen Of's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Helen Of's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Helen Of stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Helen Of's open interest, investors have to compare it to Helen Of's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Helen Of is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Helen. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Helen Of Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Helen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Helen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Helen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Helen Of Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Helen of Troy on the next trading day is expected to be 19.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95, mean absolute percentage error of 1.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Helen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Helen Of's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Helen Of Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Helen Of | Helen Of Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Helen Of Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Helen Of's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Helen Of's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.08 and 22.86, respectively. We have considered Helen Of's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Helen Of stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Helen Of stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3716 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9525 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0489 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 58.1049 |
Predictive Modules for Helen Of
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Helen of Troy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Helen Of After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Helen Of at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Helen Of or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Helen Of, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Helen Of Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Helen Of's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Helen Of's historical news coverage. Helen Of's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.74 and 20.52, respectively. We have considered Helen Of's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Helen Of is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Helen of Troy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Helen Of Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Helen Of is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Helen Of backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Helen Of, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 2.89 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.64 | 17.63 | 0.84 |
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Helen Of Hype Timeline
Helen of Troy is currently traded for 17.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Helen is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 17.63. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.84%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Helen Of is about 1363.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.67. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.5. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Helen of Troy has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.97. The entity recorded a loss per share of 34.48. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Helen Of had 2:1 split on the 23rd of September 1997. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Helen Of to cross-verify your projections.Helen Of Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Helen Of's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Helen Of's future price movements. Getting to know how Helen Of's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Helen Of may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NUS | Nu Skin Enterprises | 0.14 | 8 per month | 3.26 | (0) | 4.85 | (3.06) | 20.63 | |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market | 0.74 | 5 per month | 1.17 | 0.04 | 2.82 | (2.01) | 7.68 | |
| ABVE | Above Food Ingredients | 0.07 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 14.07 | (14.98) | 62.38 | |
| MGPI | MGP Ingredients | 0.09 | 10 per month | 2.13 | (0.01) | 3.56 | (4.14) | 12.18 | |
| EPSM | Epsium Enterprise Limited | 0.05 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 16.99 | (19.12) | 110.67 | |
| CVGW | Calavo Growers | 0.38 | 7 per month | 1.89 | 0.02 | 2.72 | (3.58) | 14.79 | |
| WEST | Westrock Coffee | (0.25) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 8.01 | (6.70) | 18.25 | |
| OTLY | Oatly Group AB | 0.42 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.34 | (5.66) | 16.31 | |
| BRCB | Black Rock Coffee | 0.49 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 4.19 | (5.69) | 18.61 | |
| VSTA | Vasta Platform | (0.01) | 5 per month | 1.40 | (0.03) | 1.42 | (1.39) | 11.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for Helen Of
For every potential investor in Helen, whether a beginner or expert, Helen Of's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Helen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Helen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Helen Of's price trends.Helen Of Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Helen Of stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Helen Of could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Helen Of by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Helen Of Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Helen Of stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Helen Of shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Helen Of stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Helen of Troy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0954 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.57 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.26 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.86 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.93) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.06 |
Helen Of Risk Indicators
The analysis of Helen Of's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Helen Of's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting helen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Variance | 8.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Helen Of
The number of cover stories for Helen Of depends on current market conditions and Helen Of's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Helen Of is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Helen Of's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Helen Of Short Properties
Helen Of's future price predictability will typically decrease when Helen Of's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Helen of Troy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Helen Of's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Helen Of's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 18.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Helen Of to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Household Appliances space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Helen Of. If investors know Helen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Helen Of listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.249 | Earnings Share (34.48) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Helen of Troy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Helen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Helen Of's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Helen Of's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Helen Of's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Helen Of's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Helen Of's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Helen Of is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Helen Of's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.