Hemnet Group Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

HEM Stock  SEK 148.70  1.90  1.29%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hemnet Group AB on the next trading day is expected to be 148.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 246.60. Hemnet Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Hemnet Group's share price is approaching 34. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Hemnet Group, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 34

 Sell Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Hemnet Group's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Hemnet Group AB, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Hemnet Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hemnet Group AB from the perspective of Hemnet Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hemnet Group AB on the next trading day is expected to be 148.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 246.60.

Hemnet Group after-hype prediction price

    
  SEK 148.7  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hemnet Group to cross-verify your projections.

Hemnet Group Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Hemnet price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hemnet using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hemnet charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Hemnet Group simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Hemnet Group AB are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Hemnet Group AB prices get older.

Hemnet Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hemnet Group AB on the next trading day is expected to be 148.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.11, mean absolute percentage error of 28.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 246.60.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hemnet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hemnet Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hemnet Group Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Hemnet GroupHemnet Group Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Hemnet Group Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hemnet Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hemnet Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 145.67 and 151.32, respectively. We have considered Hemnet Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
148.70
145.67
Downside
148.50
Expected Value
151.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hemnet Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hemnet Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.6092
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.5943
MADMean absolute deviation4.11
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0231
SAESum of the absolute errors246.5991
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Hemnet Group AB forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Hemnet Group observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Hemnet Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hemnet Group AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
145.88148.70151.52
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
135.47138.29163.57
Details

Hemnet Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Hemnet Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hemnet Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hemnet Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Hemnet Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Hemnet Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hemnet Group's historical news coverage. Hemnet Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 145.88 and 151.52, respectively. We have considered Hemnet Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
148.70
145.88
Downside
148.70
After-hype Price
151.52
Upside
Hemnet Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hemnet Group AB is based on 3 months time horizon.

Hemnet Group Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hemnet Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hemnet Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hemnet Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.67 
2.82
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
148.70
148.70
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Hemnet Group Hype Timeline

Hemnet Group AB is currently traded for 148.70on Stockholm Exchange of Sweden. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Hemnet is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.67%. %. The volatility of related hype on Hemnet Group is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 148.70. About 12.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 394.4. Hemnet Group AB last dividend was issued on the 28th of April 2023. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hemnet Group to cross-verify your projections.

Hemnet Group Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Hemnet Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hemnet Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Hemnet Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hemnet Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SINCHSinch AB 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.12) 3.89 (5.58) 23.39 
ENROEniro AB 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.11) 2.70 (2.63) 9.64 
TOURNTourn International AB 0.00 0 per month 5.58  0.01  17.06 (12.24) 32.66 
BAHN-BBahnhof AB Series 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.20) 2.07 (3.27) 5.96 
STORY-BStorytel AB 0.00 0 per month 2.02  0.03  4.25 (3.68) 22.87 
BRE2Bredband2 i Skandinavien 0.00 0 per month 0.24  0.06  1.03 (1.02) 10.21 
TRADTradeDoubler AB 0.00 0 per month 2.45 (0.01) 7.29 (4.15) 15.62 
TRANSTranstema Group AB 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.16) 6.94 (3.46) 20.96 
VPLAY-BViaplay Group AB 0.00 0 per month 1.78  0.01  5.38 (3.26) 11.07 
ADTRAdtraction Group AB 0.00 0 per month 2.23 (0.01) 3.68 (3.44) 15.74 

Other Forecasting Options for Hemnet Group

For every potential investor in Hemnet, whether a beginner or expert, Hemnet Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hemnet Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hemnet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hemnet Group's price trends.

Hemnet Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hemnet Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hemnet Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hemnet Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hemnet Group Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hemnet Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hemnet Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hemnet Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hemnet Group AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hemnet Group Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hemnet Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hemnet Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hemnet stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Hemnet Group

The number of cover stories for Hemnet Group depends on current market conditions and Hemnet Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hemnet Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hemnet Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Hemnet Group Short Properties

Hemnet Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Hemnet Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hemnet Group AB often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hemnet Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hemnet Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding101.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments94.5 M

Additional Tools for Hemnet Stock Analysis

When running Hemnet Group's price analysis, check to measure Hemnet Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hemnet Group is operating at the current time. Most of Hemnet Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hemnet Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hemnet Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hemnet Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.