Highway Holdings Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HIHO Stock | USD 0.91 0.02 2.15% |
Highway Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Highway Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Highway Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Highway Holdings fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Highway Holdings' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.50) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.18) |
Using Highway Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Highway Holdings Limited from the perspective of Highway Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Highway Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 0.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.29. Highway Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 0.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Highway Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Highway Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Highway price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Highway using various technical indicators. When you analyze Highway charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Highway Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Highway Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 0.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Highway Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Highway Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Highway Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Highway Holdings | Highway Holdings Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Highway Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Highway Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Highway Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 9.68, respectively. We have considered Highway Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Highway Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Highway Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.2333 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.009 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0539 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0458 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.29 |
Predictive Modules for Highway Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Highway Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Highway Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Highway Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Highway Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Highway Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Highway Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Highway Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Highway Holdings' historical news coverage. Highway Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.04 and 9.56, respectively. We have considered Highway Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Highway Holdings is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Highway Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Highway Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Highway Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Highway Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Highway Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.43 | 8.77 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.91 | 0.86 | 5.49 |
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Highway Holdings Hype Timeline
Highway Holdings is currently traded for 0.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Highway is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.86. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -5.49%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.43%. The volatility of related hype on Highway Holdings is about 12013.7%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.88. About 37.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.74. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Highway Holdings last dividend was issued on the 12th of December 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Highway Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Highway Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Highway Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Highway Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Highway Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Highway Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LNKS | Linkers Industries Limited | (0.01) | 8 per month | 6.54 | 0.14 | 22.58 | (10.26) | 88.10 | |
| GLXG | Galaxy Payroll Group | (0.36) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 12.50 | (14.81) | 53.25 | |
| INTJ | Intelligent Group Limited | (0.08) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 7.41 | (12.82) | 29.93 | |
| SKK | PROSHARES ULTRASHORT RUSSELL | (0.01) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.14 | (6.06) | 29.17 | |
| IVDA | Iveda Solutions | (0.07) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 16.67 | (15.22) | 74.33 | |
| FGL | Founder Group Limited | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 14.29 | (13.73) | 57.60 | |
| CDTG | CDT Environmental Technology | 0.09 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 14.71 | (16.67) | 48.33 | |
| AEHL | Antelope Enterprise Holdings | (0.34) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 10.83 | (17.77) | 134.82 | |
| DEVS | DevvStream Corp Common | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 15.17 | (11.76) | 41.39 | |
| OP | Oceanpal | 0.08 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 10.95 | (19.70) | 52.42 |
Other Forecasting Options for Highway Holdings
For every potential investor in Highway, whether a beginner or expert, Highway Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Highway Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Highway. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Highway Holdings' price trends.Highway Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Highway Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Highway Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Highway Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Highway Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Highway Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Highway Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Highway Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Highway Holdings Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 936.67 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.40) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.94 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.93 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) |
Highway Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Highway Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Highway Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting highway stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.38 | |||
| Variance | 70.19 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Highway Holdings
The number of cover stories for Highway Holdings depends on current market conditions and Highway Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Highway Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Highway Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Highway Holdings Short Properties
Highway Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Highway Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Highway Holdings Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Highway Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Highway Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Highway Holdings to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Will Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components sector continue expanding? Could Highway diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Highway Holdings. Market participants price Highway higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Highway Holdings data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.50) | Earnings Share 0.02 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.18) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Highway Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Highway that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Highway Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Highway Holdings' true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Highway Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Highway Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Highway Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Highway Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Highway Holdings' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.