Hartford International Mutual Fund Forward View - 20 Period Moving Average

Key Indicators . 20 Period Moving Average . Mutual Funds . USA . 
Fund . The Hartford International
HILIX Fund  USD 26.71  0.22  0.83%   
20 Period Moving Average is applied to The Hartford International's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. These values update automatically with each new closing price. AIC measures relative model quality — lower AIC values indicate a better-fitting model. The 20 Period Moving Average model projects Hartford International at 26.32 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This 20 Period Moving Average output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
The 20-period moving average forecast for The Hartford International replaces each daily value with the mean of that value and the 20 preceding closing prices. This is a widely used smoothing window that spans approximately one month of trading data.

20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 10th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average model forecasts Hartford International at 26.32 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and sum of absolute errors of 30.92 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Hartford International's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Hartford International  Hartford International Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

Hartford International's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The model places downside around 25.11 and upside around 27.52 for the next session. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Market Value
26.71
25.11
Downside
26.32
Expected Value
27.52
Upside
Target Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the 20 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for Hartford International mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria81.1765
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1301
MADMean absolute deviation0.754
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0295
SAESum of the absolute errors30.916
The broader window aggressively filters short-term noise in Hartford International price data, producing a smooth trend line. This makes it useful for identifying the prevailing direction of Hartford International prices but slow to respond to reversals. The model is reliable only for very short-term projections (one to two periods).

Other Forecasting Options for Hartford International

The distribution of Hartford International's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This reveals hidden support and resistance zones in Hartford International's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of Hartford International's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price foreshadow trend changes in Hartford.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

Hartford International Comparable Funds

These peer funds help position Hartford International within a broader category rather than against operating businesses. Useful comparisons usually include net asset value behavior, total return, volatility, distribution profile, and leverage.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hartford International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Hartford International mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Hartford International. Median and Typical Price smooth out intraday extremes, providing a cleaner reference level for evaluating Hartford International sessions. Persistent divergence between momentum indicators and price often precedes trend reversals in Hartford International.
Rate Of Daily Change1.01
Day Median Price26.71
Day Typical Price26.71
Price Action Indicator0.11
Period Momentum Indicator0.22
Relative Strength Index55.24

Hartford International Risk Indicators

Assessing Hartford International's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for hartford mutual fund. The level of risk embedded in Hartford International's feeds directly into exposure calibration. Comparing Hartford International's downside variance to total variance reveals whether the risk profile is skewed toward losses. These risk measures complement the price analysis above by framing how dispersed recent returns have been.
Mean Deviation0.855
Semi Deviation1.19
Standard Deviation1.22
Variance1.49
Downside Variance1.54
Semi Variance1.41
Expected Short fall-0.87
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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