Hikma Pharmaceuticals Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| HKMPY Stock | USD 42.60 0.25 0.59% |
Hikma Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Hikma Pharmaceuticals' share price is approaching 47. This usually indicates that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Hikma Pharmaceuticals, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Hikma Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC from the perspective of Hikma Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 41.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.64. Hikma Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 42.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Hikma |
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hikma price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hikma using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hikma charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 41.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72, mean absolute percentage error of 1.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hikma Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hikma Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hikma Pharmaceuticals | Hikma Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hikma Pharmaceuticals' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hikma Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.70 and 44.21, respectively. We have considered Hikma Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hikma Pharmaceuticals pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hikma Pharmaceuticals pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.1616 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7154 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0165 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 43.6388 |
Predictive Modules for Hikma Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hikma Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hikma Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hikma Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Hikma Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hikma Pharmaceuticals' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hikma Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Hikma Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.34 and 44.86, respectively. We have considered Hikma Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hikma Pharmaceuticals is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hikma Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hikma Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hikma Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 2.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
42.60 | 42.60 | 0.00 |
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Hikma Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC is currently traded for 42.60. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Hikma is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on Hikma Pharmaceuticals is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 42.60. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.89. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.41. The entity last dividend was issued on the 18th of August 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hikma Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.Hikma Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hikma Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hikma Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Hikma Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hikma Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HLUBF | H Lundbeck AS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.33 | |
| HLBBF | H Lundbeck AS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 0.00 | (0.44) | 6.16 | |
| GZPHF | Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.35 | |
| SGFEF | Siegfried Holding AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| LVZPF | Livzon Pharmaceutical Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| OPHLY | Ono Pharmaceutical Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.01 | 0.16 | 2.10 | (1.91) | 5.42 | |
| SMDPY | Sumitomo Pharma Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| DNPUF | Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| OPHLF | Ono Pharmaceutical Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.68 | 0.09 | 15.65 | (12.89) | 40.31 | |
| ZLDPF | Zealand Pharma AS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.14 | (5.39) | 21.96 |
Other Forecasting Options for Hikma Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Hikma, whether a beginner or expert, Hikma Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hikma Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hikma. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hikma Pharmaceuticals' price trends.Hikma Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hikma Pharmaceuticals pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hikma Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hikma Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hikma Pharmaceuticals pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hikma Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hikma Pharmaceuticals pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 42.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 42.6 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.25 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.79 |
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hikma Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hikma Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hikma pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Variance | 5.1 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Hikma Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Hikma Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Hikma Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hikma Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hikma Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Hikma Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Hikma Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Hikma Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hikma Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hikma Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 118 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 426 M |
Additional Tools for Hikma Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Hikma Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Hikma Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hikma Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Hikma Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hikma Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hikma Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hikma Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.