Allianzgi Health Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

Allianzgi Health Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Allianzgi price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Allianzgi using various technical indicators. When you analyze Allianzgi charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Allianzgi Health is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Allianzgi Health Sciences value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Allianzgi Health Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Allianzgi Health Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 30.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.60.

Allianzgi Health Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Allianzgi Health Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allianzgi Health mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allianzgi Health mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Allianzgi Health Sciences. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Allianzgi Health. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Allianzgi Health

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allianzgi Health Sciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 29.50 30.45 31.40 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 29.47 30.42 31.37 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 30.59 31.16 31.73 Details

Allianzgi Health After-Hype Price Density Analysis

Allianzgi Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Allianzgi Health Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Notes

Allianzgi Health Hype Timeline

Allianzgi Health Sciences is currently traded for 30.91. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.5. Allianzgi is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Allianzgi Health is about 19.08%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.41. The company last dividend was issued on the 19th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allianzgi Health to cross-verify your projections.

Allianzgi Health Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Allianzgi Health

For every potential investor in Allianzgi, whether a beginner or expert, Allianzgi Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allianzgi Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allianzgi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allianzgi Health's price trends.

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