Holley Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| HLLY Stock | USD 4.18 0.02 0.48% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Holley Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 4.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.77. Holley Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Holley's share price is at 57. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Holley, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Holley hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Holley Inc from the perspective of Holley response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Holley Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 4.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.77. Holley after-hype prediction price | USD 4.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Holley to cross-verify your projections. Holley Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Holley price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Holley using various technical indicators. When you analyze Holley charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Holley Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Holley Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 4.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Holley Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Holley's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Holley Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Holley | Holley Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Holley Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Holley's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Holley's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 8.97, respectively. We have considered Holley's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Holley stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Holley stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.7198 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0328 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0977 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0256 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.765 |
Predictive Modules for Holley
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Holley Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Holley After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Holley at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Holley or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Holley, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Holley Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Holley's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Holley's historical news coverage. Holley's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.21 and 8.96, respectively. We have considered Holley's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Holley is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Holley Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Holley Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Holley is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Holley backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Holley, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.66 | 4.78 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.18 | 4.18 | 0.00 |
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Holley Hype Timeline
Holley Inc is currently traded for 4.18. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.31. Holley is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.66%. %. The volatility of related hype on Holley is about 1017.02%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.87. About 87.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.1. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Holley Inc recorded a loss per share of 0.21. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Holley to cross-verify your projections.Holley Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Holley's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Holley's future price movements. Getting to know how Holley's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Holley may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| INVZ | Innoviz Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 6.14 | (7.48) | 34.74 | |
| HYLN | Hyliion Holdings Corp | (1.15) | 16 per month | 4.72 | (0) | 5.83 | (7.17) | 19.92 | |
| MPAA | Motorcar Parts of | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.55 | (3.90) | 30.59 | |
| NIU | Niu Technologies | (1.15) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.50 | (6.94) | 15.96 | |
| STRT | Strattec Security | (1.14) | 18 per month | 2.71 | 0.10 | 6.21 | (2.94) | 18.40 | |
| GCO | Genesco | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.04 | 0.05 | 8.14 | (4.04) | 39.13 | |
| EMPD | Empery Digital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.53 | (9.18) | 20.15 | |
| WW | WW International Common | (1.15) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 10.00 | (8.96) | 27.90 | |
| MCFT | MCBC Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.19 | (0.04) | 4.21 | (4.27) | 12.82 | |
| MNRO | Monro Muffler Brake | (0.03) | 17 per month | 3.61 | 0.06 | 5.20 | (3.62) | 20.48 |
Other Forecasting Options for Holley
For every potential investor in Holley, whether a beginner or expert, Holley's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Holley Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Holley. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Holley's price trends.Holley Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Holley stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Holley could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Holley by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Holley Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Holley stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Holley shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Holley stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Holley Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Holley Risk Indicators
The analysis of Holley's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Holley's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting holley stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.78 | |||
| Variance | 22.86 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.85 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.73) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Holley
The number of cover stories for Holley depends on current market conditions and Holley's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Holley is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Holley's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Holley Short Properties
Holley's future price predictability will typically decrease when Holley's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Holley Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Holley's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Holley's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 118.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 56.1 M |
Additional Tools for Holley Stock Analysis
When running Holley's price analysis, check to measure Holley's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Holley is operating at the current time. Most of Holley's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Holley's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Holley's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Holley to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.