Hormel Foods Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HO7 Stock | EUR 21.06 0.33 1.59% |
Hormel Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hormel Foods' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 27th of January 2026, The value of RSI of Hormel Foods' share price is at 58. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Hormel Foods, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Hormel Foods hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hormel Foods from the perspective of Hormel Foods response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hormel Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 21.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.46. Hormel Foods after-hype prediction price | EUR 21.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Hormel |
Hormel Foods Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hormel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hormel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hormel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hormel Foods Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hormel Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 21.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.46.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hormel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hormel Foods' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hormel Foods Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hormel Foods | Hormel Foods Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Hormel Foods Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hormel Foods' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hormel Foods' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.60 and 22.52, respectively. We have considered Hormel Foods' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hormel Foods stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hormel Foods stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0948 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0184 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2207 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0112 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.46 |
Predictive Modules for Hormel Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hormel Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hormel Foods After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hormel Foods at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hormel Foods or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hormel Foods, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hormel Foods Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hormel Foods' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hormel Foods' historical news coverage. Hormel Foods' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.20 and 22.92, respectively. We have considered Hormel Foods' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hormel Foods is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hormel Foods is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hormel Foods Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hormel Foods is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hormel Foods backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hormel Foods, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.06 | 21.06 | 0.00 |
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Hormel Foods Hype Timeline
Hormel Foods is currently traded for 21.06on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Hormel is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on Hormel Foods is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.06. About 47.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Hormel Foods was currently reported as 13.8. The company last dividend was issued on the 13th of January 2023. Hormel Foods had 2:1 split on the 10th of February 2016. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hormel Foods to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Hormel Stock please use our How to Invest in Hormel Foods guide.Hormel Foods Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hormel Foods' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hormel Foods' future price movements. Getting to know how Hormel Foods' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hormel Foods may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 26Y | YATRA ONLINE DL 0001 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.39 | 0 | 9.60 | (7.58) | 18.37 | |
| DVY | Adtalem Global Education | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.77 | (3.73) | 31.56 | |
| CE1 | Perdoceo Education | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.99 | (3.81) | 11.33 | |
| DVY | DeVry Education Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.07 | (4.76) | 34.07 | |
| MNL | Gruppo Mutuionline SpA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.70 | (2.53) | 9.56 | |
| WN6 | CARSALESCOM | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 1.96 | (2.59) | 5.70 | |
| CE1 | CAREER EDUCATION | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.34 | (3.78) | 12.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for Hormel Foods
For every potential investor in Hormel, whether a beginner or expert, Hormel Foods' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hormel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hormel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hormel Foods' price trends.Hormel Foods Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hormel Foods stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hormel Foods could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hormel Foods by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hormel Foods Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hormel Foods stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hormel Foods shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hormel Foods stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hormel Foods entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Hormel Foods Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hormel Foods' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hormel Foods' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hormel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Variance | 3.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.75 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Hormel Foods
The number of cover stories for Hormel Foods depends on current market conditions and Hormel Foods' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hormel Foods is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hormel Foods' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Hormel Stock
When determining whether Hormel Foods is a strong investment it is important to analyze Hormel Foods' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Hormel Foods' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Hormel Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hormel Foods to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Hormel Stock please use our How to Invest in Hormel Foods guide.You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..