Holbrook Income Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression

HOBAX Fund  USD 9.78  0.01  0.10%   
Holbrook Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Holbrook Income's mutual fund price is slightly above 63. This usually indicates that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Holbrook, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 63

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Holbrook Income's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Holbrook Income, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Holbrook Income hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Holbrook Income from the perspective of Holbrook Income response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Holbrook Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.34.

Holbrook Income after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 9.78  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Holbrook Income to cross-verify your projections.

Holbrook Income Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Holbrook price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Holbrook using various technical indicators. When you analyze Holbrook charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Holbrook Income price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Holbrook Income Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Holbrook Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0007, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Holbrook Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Holbrook Income's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Holbrook Income Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Holbrook Income  Holbrook Income Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Holbrook Income Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Holbrook Income's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Holbrook Income's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.62 and 9.94, respectively. We have considered Holbrook Income's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.78
9.78
Expected Value
9.94
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Holbrook Income mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Holbrook Income mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.8359
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.022
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0023
SAESum of the absolute errors1.3397
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Holbrook Income historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Holbrook Income

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Holbrook Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.629.789.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.838.9910.76
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Holbrook Income. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Holbrook Income's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Holbrook Income's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Holbrook Income.

Holbrook Income After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Holbrook Income at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Holbrook Income or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Holbrook Income, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Holbrook Income Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Holbrook Income's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Holbrook Income's historical news coverage. Holbrook Income's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.62 and 9.94, respectively. We have considered Holbrook Income's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
9.78
9.78
After-hype Price
9.94
Upside
Holbrook Income is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Holbrook Income is based on 3 months time horizon.

Holbrook Income Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Holbrook Income is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Holbrook Income backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Holbrook Income, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
0.16
  0.14 
  0.06 
4 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
9.78
9.78
0.00 
1.16  
Notes

Holbrook Income Hype Timeline

Holbrook Income is currently traded for 9.78. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Holbrook is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 1.16%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Holbrook Income is about 2.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.72. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Holbrook Income to cross-verify your projections.

Holbrook Income Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Holbrook Income's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Holbrook Income's future price movements. Getting to know how Holbrook Income's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Holbrook Income may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Holbrook Income

For every potential investor in Holbrook, whether a beginner or expert, Holbrook Income's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Holbrook Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Holbrook. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Holbrook Income's price trends.

Holbrook Income Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Holbrook Income mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Holbrook Income could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Holbrook Income by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Holbrook Income Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Holbrook Income mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Holbrook Income shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Holbrook Income mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Holbrook Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Holbrook Income Risk Indicators

The analysis of Holbrook Income's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Holbrook Income's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting holbrook mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Holbrook Income

The number of cover stories for Holbrook Income depends on current market conditions and Holbrook Income's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Holbrook Income is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Holbrook Income's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Holbrook Mutual Fund

Holbrook Income financial ratios help investors to determine whether Holbrook Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Holbrook with respect to the benefits of owning Holbrook Income security.
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