Short-term Government Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

HOSGX Fund  USD 4.99  0.01  0.20%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Short Term Government Securities on the next trading day is expected to be 4.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.55. Short-term Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Short-term Government price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Short-term Government Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Short Term Government Securities on the next trading day is expected to be 4.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.55.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Short-term Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Short-term Government's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Short-term Government Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Short-term Government Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Short-term Government's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Short-term Government's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.79 and 5.13, respectively. We have considered Short-term Government's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.99
4.96
Expected Value
5.13
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Short-term Government mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Short-term Government mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.2397
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.009
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0018
SAESum of the absolute errors0.5506
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Short Term Government Securities historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Short-term Government

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Short Term Government. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.824.995.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.654.824.99
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Short-term Government. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Short-term Government's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Short-term Government's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Short Term Government.

Other Forecasting Options for Short-term Government

For every potential investor in Short-term, whether a beginner or expert, Short-term Government's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Short-term Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Short-term. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Short-term Government's price trends.

Short-term Government Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Short-term Government mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Short-term Government could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Short-term Government by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Short Term Government Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Short-term Government's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Short-term Government's current price.

Short-term Government Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Short-term Government mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Short-term Government shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Short-term Government mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Short Term Government Securities entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Short-term Government Risk Indicators

The analysis of Short-term Government's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Short-term Government's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting short-term mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Short-term Mutual Fund

Short-term Government financial ratios help investors to determine whether Short-term Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Short-term with respect to the benefits of owning Short-term Government security.
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