Hamamatsu Photonics OTC Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

HPHTY Stock  USD 5.61  0.00  0.00%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hamamatsu Photonics KK on the next trading day is expected to be 5.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.86. Hamamatsu OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Hamamatsu Photonics' otc stock price is slightly above 66. This usually indicates that the otc stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Hamamatsu, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 66

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Hamamatsu Photonics stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Hamamatsu Photonics shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Hamamatsu Photonics' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Hamamatsu Photonics and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Hamamatsu Photonics' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Hamamatsu Photonics KK, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Hamamatsu Photonics based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Hamamatsu Photonics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hamamatsu Photonics KK from the perspective of Hamamatsu Photonics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hamamatsu Photonics KK on the next trading day is expected to be 5.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.86.

Hamamatsu Photonics after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 5.61  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hamamatsu Photonics to cross-verify your projections.

Hamamatsu Photonics Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Hamamatsu price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hamamatsu using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hamamatsu charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Hamamatsu Photonics simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Hamamatsu Photonics KK are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Hamamatsu Photonics prices get older.

Hamamatsu Photonics Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hamamatsu Photonics KK on the next trading day is expected to be 5.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.86.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hamamatsu OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hamamatsu Photonics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hamamatsu Photonics OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Hamamatsu PhotonicsHamamatsu Photonics Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Hamamatsu Photonics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hamamatsu Photonics' OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hamamatsu Photonics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.04 and 9.18, respectively. We have considered Hamamatsu Photonics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.61
5.61
Expected Value
9.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hamamatsu Photonics otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hamamatsu Photonics otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.7538
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.008
MADMean absolute deviation0.0477
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0086
SAESum of the absolute errors2.86
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Hamamatsu Photonics KK forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Hamamatsu Photonics observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Hamamatsu Photonics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hamamatsu Photonics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hamamatsu Photonics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.045.619.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.094.668.23
Details

Hamamatsu Photonics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Hamamatsu Photonics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hamamatsu Photonics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Hamamatsu Photonics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Hamamatsu Photonics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Hamamatsu Photonics' otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hamamatsu Photonics' historical news coverage. Hamamatsu Photonics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.04 and 9.18, respectively. We have considered Hamamatsu Photonics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
5.61
5.61
After-hype Price
9.18
Upside
Hamamatsu Photonics is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hamamatsu Photonics is based on 3 months time horizon.

Hamamatsu Photonics OTC Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Hamamatsu Photonics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hamamatsu Photonics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hamamatsu Photonics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
3.57
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
5.61
5.61
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Hamamatsu Photonics Hype Timeline

Hamamatsu Photonics is currently traded for 5.61. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Hamamatsu is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Hamamatsu Photonics is about 89250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.61. The company last dividend was issued on the 28th of March 2018. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hamamatsu Photonics to cross-verify your projections.

Hamamatsu Photonics Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Hamamatsu Photonics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hamamatsu Photonics' future price movements. Getting to know how Hamamatsu Photonics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hamamatsu Photonics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CODAFCodan Limited 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.06  0.00  0.00  27.89 
RNSHFRenishaw plc 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.01) 0.00  0.00  9.06 
HRSEFHirose Electric CoLtd 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
HRIBFHORIBA 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
TYOYYTaiyo Yuden Co 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.06) 6.05 (6.09) 18.94 
AUOTYAU Optronics Corp 0.00 0 per month 2.78  0.02  5.73 (5.28) 20.24 
VEMLFVenture Limited 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.01  0.00  0.00  3.50 
HROEYHirose Electric CoLtd(0.04)8 per month 0.00 (0.21) 0.00  0.00  12.71 
GMYTFGMO Payment Gateway 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
MLXSFMelexis NV 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.09) 0.00  0.00  16.70 

Other Forecasting Options for Hamamatsu Photonics

For every potential investor in Hamamatsu, whether a beginner or expert, Hamamatsu Photonics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hamamatsu OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hamamatsu. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hamamatsu Photonics' price trends.

Hamamatsu Photonics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hamamatsu Photonics otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hamamatsu Photonics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hamamatsu Photonics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hamamatsu Photonics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hamamatsu Photonics otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hamamatsu Photonics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hamamatsu Photonics otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hamamatsu Photonics KK entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hamamatsu Photonics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hamamatsu Photonics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hamamatsu Photonics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hamamatsu otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Hamamatsu Photonics

The number of cover stories for Hamamatsu Photonics depends on current market conditions and Hamamatsu Photonics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hamamatsu Photonics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hamamatsu Photonics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for Hamamatsu OTC Stock Analysis

When running Hamamatsu Photonics' price analysis, check to measure Hamamatsu Photonics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hamamatsu Photonics is operating at the current time. Most of Hamamatsu Photonics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hamamatsu Photonics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hamamatsu Photonics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hamamatsu Photonics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.