Harbor Diversified Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

HRBR Stock  USD 1.50  0.05  3.23%   
Harbor Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Harbor Diversified's share price is at 54. This usually indicates that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Harbor Diversified, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 54

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Harbor Diversified's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Harbor Diversified and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Harbor Diversified's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Harbor Diversified, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Harbor Diversified hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Harbor Diversified from the perspective of Harbor Diversified response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Harbor Diversified on the next trading day is expected to be 1.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.94.

Harbor Diversified after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 1.5  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Harbor Diversified to cross-verify your projections.

Harbor Diversified Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Harbor price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Harbor using various technical indicators. When you analyze Harbor charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Harbor Diversified is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Harbor Diversified value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Harbor Diversified Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Harbor Diversified on the next trading day is expected to be 1.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.94.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Harbor Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Harbor Diversified's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Harbor Diversified Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Harbor Diversified  Harbor Diversified Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Harbor Diversified Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Harbor Diversified's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Harbor Diversified's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 16.84, respectively. We have considered Harbor Diversified's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.50
1.30
Expected Value
16.84
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Harbor Diversified pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Harbor Diversified pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.3712
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1138
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1099
SAESum of the absolute errors6.9425
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Harbor Diversified. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Harbor Diversified. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Harbor Diversified

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Harbor Diversified. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.081.5016.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.071.3216.73
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Harbor Diversified. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Harbor Diversified's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Harbor Diversified's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Harbor Diversified.

Harbor Diversified After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Harbor Diversified at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Harbor Diversified or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Harbor Diversified, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Harbor Diversified Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Harbor Diversified's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Harbor Diversified's historical news coverage. Harbor Diversified's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.08 and 16.91, respectively. We have considered Harbor Diversified's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1.50
1.50
After-hype Price
16.91
Upside
Harbor Diversified is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Harbor Diversified is based on 3 months time horizon.

Harbor Diversified Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Harbor Diversified is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Harbor Diversified backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Harbor Diversified, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.70 
15.54
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1.50
1.50
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Harbor Diversified Hype Timeline

Harbor Diversified is currently traded for 1.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Harbor is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.7%. %. The volatility of related hype on Harbor Diversified is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.50. About 44.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.42. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Harbor Diversified had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:1000 split on the 2nd of November 2011. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Harbor Diversified to cross-verify your projections.

Harbor Diversified Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Harbor Diversified's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Harbor Diversified's future price movements. Getting to know how Harbor Diversified's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Harbor Diversified may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NOKPFNok Airlines Public 0.00 0 per month 22.28  0.08  37.25 (60.00) 230.00 
CEBUYCebu Air ADR 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.11  0.00  0.00  46.67 
YTOEFYTO Express Holdings 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
JETMFGlobal Crossing Airlines 0.00 0 per month 3.46  0.01  6.56 (6.45) 21.42 
CRKTCirmaker Technology 0.00 0 per month 19.16  0.12  93.45 (48.50) 164.22 
ESLGFLogistics Development Group 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.16  0.00  0.00  26.67 
CHEVCheviot Financial Corp 0.00 0 per month 4.68  0  7.84 (5.17) 43.27 
WTLLFWater Intelligence plc 0.00 0 per month 2.78  0.07  7.69 (4.88) 29.30 
AFGVYAgfa Gevaert NV 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.19) 0.00  0.00  13.55 
MANOFManolete Partners Plc 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.20) 0.00 (5.83) 27.95 

Other Forecasting Options for Harbor Diversified

For every potential investor in Harbor, whether a beginner or expert, Harbor Diversified's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Harbor Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Harbor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Harbor Diversified's price trends.

Harbor Diversified Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Harbor Diversified pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Harbor Diversified could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Harbor Diversified by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Harbor Diversified Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Harbor Diversified pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Harbor Diversified shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Harbor Diversified pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Harbor Diversified entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Harbor Diversified Risk Indicators

The analysis of Harbor Diversified's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Harbor Diversified's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting harbor pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Harbor Diversified

The number of cover stories for Harbor Diversified depends on current market conditions and Harbor Diversified's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Harbor Diversified is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Harbor Diversified's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Harbor Diversified Short Properties

Harbor Diversified's future price predictability will typically decrease when Harbor Diversified's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Harbor Diversified often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Harbor Diversified's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Harbor Diversified's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding71.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments175.5 M

Additional Tools for Harbor Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Harbor Diversified's price analysis, check to measure Harbor Diversified's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harbor Diversified is operating at the current time. Most of Harbor Diversified's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harbor Diversified's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harbor Diversified's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harbor Diversified to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.