Eagle Capital Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

HRCPX Fund  USD 63.27  0.48  0.76%   
Eagle Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Eagle Capital's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Eagle Capital's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Eagle Capital Appreciation, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Eagle Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Eagle Capital Appreciation from the perspective of Eagle Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

Eagle Capital after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eagle Capital to cross-verify your projections.

Eagle Capital Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Eagle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Eagle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Eagle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Eagle Capital simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Eagle Capital Appreciation are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Eagle Capital Apprec prices get older.

Eagle Capital Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eagle Capital Appreciation on the next trading day is expected to be 63.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.02.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eagle Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eagle Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Eagle Capital Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Eagle Capital Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Eagle Capital's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eagle Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 62.11 and 64.43, respectively. We have considered Eagle Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
63.27
63.27
Expected Value
64.43
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eagle Capital mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eagle Capital mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.6239
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.033
MADMean absolute deviation0.517
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0083
SAESum of the absolute errors31.02
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Eagle Capital Appreciation forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Eagle Capital observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Eagle Capital

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eagle Capital Apprec. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.001.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.397.788.94
Details

Eagle Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Eagle Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Eagle Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Eagle Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Eagle Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Eagle Capital's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Eagle Capital's historical news coverage. Eagle Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 1.16, respectively. We have considered Eagle Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
63.27
0.00
After-hype Price
1.16
Upside
Eagle Capital is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Eagle Capital Apprec is based on 3 months time horizon.

Eagle Capital Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Eagle Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Eagle Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Eagle Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.06 
1.16
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
63.27
0.00
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Eagle Capital Hype Timeline

Eagle Capital Apprec is currently traded for 63.27. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Eagle is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Eagle Capital is about 2619.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 63.27. The company last dividend was issued on the 19th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eagle Capital to cross-verify your projections.

Eagle Capital Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Eagle Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Eagle Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Eagle Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Eagle Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Eagle Capital

For every potential investor in Eagle, whether a beginner or expert, Eagle Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eagle Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eagle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eagle Capital's price trends.

Eagle Capital Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eagle Capital mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eagle Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eagle Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Eagle Capital Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eagle Capital mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eagle Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eagle Capital mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Eagle Capital Appreciation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Eagle Capital Risk Indicators

The analysis of Eagle Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eagle Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eagle mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Eagle Capital

The number of cover stories for Eagle Capital depends on current market conditions and Eagle Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Eagle Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Eagle Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Eagle Mutual Fund

Eagle Capital financial ratios help investors to determine whether Eagle Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Eagle with respect to the benefits of owning Eagle Capital security.
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