Himalaya Shipping Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HSHP Stock | 10.25 0.23 2.30% |
Himalaya Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Himalaya Shipping's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Himalaya Shipping's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Himalaya Shipping fundamentals over time.
The value of relative strength index of Himalaya Shipping's stock price is slightly above 68. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Himalaya, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.15) | Wall Street Target Price 11.4 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
Using Himalaya Shipping hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Himalaya Shipping from the perspective of Himalaya Shipping response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Himalaya Shipping on the next trading day is expected to be 10.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.24. Himalaya Shipping after-hype prediction price | USD 10.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Himalaya Shipping to cross-verify your projections. Himalaya Shipping Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Himalaya price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Himalaya using various technical indicators. When you analyze Himalaya charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Himalaya Shipping Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Himalaya Shipping on the next trading day is expected to be 10.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Himalaya Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Himalaya Shipping's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Himalaya Shipping Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Himalaya Shipping | Himalaya Shipping Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Himalaya Shipping Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Himalaya Shipping's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Himalaya Shipping's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.97 and 12.52, respectively. We have considered Himalaya Shipping's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Himalaya Shipping stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Himalaya Shipping stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.1264 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0467 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1541 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0175 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.245 |
Predictive Modules for Himalaya Shipping
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Himalaya Shipping. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Himalaya Shipping After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Himalaya Shipping at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Himalaya Shipping or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Himalaya Shipping, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Himalaya Shipping Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Himalaya Shipping's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Himalaya Shipping's historical news coverage. Himalaya Shipping's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.76 and 12.30, respectively. We have considered Himalaya Shipping's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Himalaya Shipping is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Himalaya Shipping is based on 3 months time horizon.
Himalaya Shipping Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Himalaya Shipping is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Himalaya Shipping backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Himalaya Shipping, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.52 | 2.27 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.25 | 10.03 | 0.10 |
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Himalaya Shipping Hype Timeline
Himalaya Shipping is currently traded for 10.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.13. Himalaya is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 10.03 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.52%. The volatility of related hype on Himalaya Shipping is about 915.32%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.12. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 123.58 M. Net Income was 21.04 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 90.03 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Himalaya Shipping to cross-verify your projections.Himalaya Shipping Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Himalaya Shipping's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Himalaya Shipping's future price movements. Getting to know how Himalaya Shipping's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Himalaya Shipping may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KNOP | KNOT Offshore Partners | (0.11) | 10 per month | 1.06 | 0.11 | 4.31 | (2.13) | 12.63 | |
| PANL | Pangaea Logistic | (0.02) | 12 per month | 1.38 | 0.21 | 5.11 | (3.15) | 22.74 | |
| CMDB | Costamare Bulkers Holdings | (0.11) | 33 per month | 1.63 | 0.10 | 2.58 | (3.29) | 15.86 | |
| ASLE | AerSale Corp | (0.02) | 9 per month | 2.66 | (0.03) | 2.92 | (3.44) | 14.25 | |
| ESEA | Euroseas | (2.08) | 9 per month | 2.62 | (0.01) | 3.87 | (3.78) | 13.57 | |
| BBCP | Concrete Pumping Holdings | 0.33 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.51 | (4.43) | 15.27 | |
| EVI | EVI Industries | (0.79) | 9 per month | 3.72 | (0.02) | 5.38 | (6.31) | 16.72 | |
| MEC | Mayville Engineering Co | (0.45) | 9 per month | 2.59 | 0.04 | 5.19 | (3.38) | 13.94 | |
| AIRJ | Montana Technologies | (0.05) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 13.28 | (7.52) | 31.81 | |
| SPIR | Spire Global | 0.82 | 9 per month | 6.76 | 0.06 | 8.32 | (5.84) | 31.88 |
Other Forecasting Options for Himalaya Shipping
For every potential investor in Himalaya, whether a beginner or expert, Himalaya Shipping's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Himalaya Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Himalaya. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Himalaya Shipping's price trends.Himalaya Shipping Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Himalaya Shipping stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Himalaya Shipping could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Himalaya Shipping by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Himalaya Shipping Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Himalaya Shipping stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Himalaya Shipping shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Himalaya Shipping stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Himalaya Shipping entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Himalaya Shipping Risk Indicators
The analysis of Himalaya Shipping's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Himalaya Shipping's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting himalaya stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Variance | 5.23 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.84 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.86) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Himalaya Shipping
The number of cover stories for Himalaya Shipping depends on current market conditions and Himalaya Shipping's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Himalaya Shipping is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Himalaya Shipping's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Himalaya Shipping Short Properties
Himalaya Shipping's future price predictability will typically decrease when Himalaya Shipping's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Himalaya Shipping often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Himalaya Shipping's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Himalaya Shipping's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 43.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 19.4 M |
Additional Tools for Himalaya Stock Analysis
When running Himalaya Shipping's price analysis, check to measure Himalaya Shipping's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Himalaya Shipping is operating at the current time. Most of Himalaya Shipping's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Himalaya Shipping's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Himalaya Shipping's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Himalaya Shipping to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.