Hershey Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| HSY Stock | USD 191.20 0.55 0.29% |
Hershey Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Hershey's share price is at 54. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Hershey, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.6009 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.996 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.0504 | Wall Street Target Price 198.1739 |
Using Hershey hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hershey Co from the perspective of Hershey response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Hershey using Hershey's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Hershey using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Hershey's stock price.
Hershey Short Interest
An investor who is long Hershey may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Hershey and may potentially protect profits, hedge Hershey with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 177.9135 | Short Percent 0.0829 | Short Ratio 7.3 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.7 M | 50 Day MA 185.4156 |
Hershey Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hershey Co on the next trading day is expected to be 188.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 183.94.Hershey Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Hershey's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hershey. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hershey can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hershey Co. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Hershey's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Hershey.
Hershey Implied Volatility | 0.53 |
Hershey's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Hershey Co stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hershey's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hershey stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hershey's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hershey Co on the next trading day is expected to be 188.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 183.94. Hershey after-hype prediction price | USD 191.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hershey to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Hershey contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Hershey Co will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0331% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Hershey trading at USD 191.2, that is roughly USD 0.0633 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Hershey's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Hershey Co options at the current volatility level of 0.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Hershey Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hershey's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Hershey's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Hershey stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hershey's open interest, investors have to compare it to Hershey's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hershey is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hershey. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Hershey Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hershey price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hershey using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hershey charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Hershey's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 912.3 M | Current Value 1.2 B | Quarterly Volatility 323 M |
Hershey Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hershey Co on the next trading day is expected to be 188.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.02, mean absolute percentage error of 13.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 183.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hershey Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hershey's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hershey Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hershey | Hershey Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Hershey Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hershey's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hershey's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 186.68 and 189.80, respectively. We have considered Hershey's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hershey stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hershey stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.7101 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.0155 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0164 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 183.9449 |
Predictive Modules for Hershey
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hershey. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hershey's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hershey After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hershey at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hershey or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hershey, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hershey Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hershey's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hershey's historical news coverage. Hershey's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 189.65 and 192.75, respectively. We have considered Hershey's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hershey is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hershey is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hershey Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hershey is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hershey backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hershey, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 1.56 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 7 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
191.20 | 191.20 | 0.00 |
|
Hershey Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Hershey is traded for 191.20. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Hershey is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Hershey is about 317.07%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 191.26. About 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.69. Hershey last dividend was issued on the 17th of November 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 16th of June 2004. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hershey to cross-verify your projections.Hershey Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hershey's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hershey's future price movements. Getting to know how Hershey's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hershey may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| K | Kellanova | 0.24 | 23 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.54 | (0.48) | 5.34 | |
| SYY | Sysco | 0.04 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.33 | (2.10) | 6.00 | |
| KVUE | Kenvue Inc | (0.40) | 10 per month | 0.95 | 0.11 | 2.27 | (2.09) | 15.22 | |
| KMB | Kimberly Clark | 1.27 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.17 | (1.59) | 17.56 | |
| KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper | 0.45 | 9 per month | 1.57 | (0.03) | 1.97 | (1.91) | 13.48 | |
| ADM | Archer Daniels Midland | (0.02) | 11 per month | 1.90 | 0.03 | 2.94 | (3.26) | 7.68 | |
| EL | Estee Lauder Companies | 1.04 | 10 per month | 1.74 | 0.07 | 3.89 | (3.02) | 8.23 | |
| JBS | JBS NV | (0.22) | 10 per month | 1.49 | 0.12 | 2.58 | (2.78) | 8.67 | |
| ABEV | Ambev SA ADR | 1.25 | 20 per month | 1.10 | 0.20 | 3.04 | (2.09) | 10.33 | |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 1.27 | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.95 | (2.54) | 9.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for Hershey
For every potential investor in Hershey, whether a beginner or expert, Hershey's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hershey Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hershey. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hershey's price trends.Hershey Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hershey stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hershey could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hershey by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hershey Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hershey stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hershey shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hershey stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hershey Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Hershey Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hershey's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hershey's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hershey stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Variance | 2.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Hershey
The number of cover stories for Hershey depends on current market conditions and Hershey's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hershey is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hershey's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Hershey Short Properties
Hershey's future price predictability will typically decrease when Hershey's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hershey Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hershey's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hershey's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 203.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 730.7 M |
Additional Tools for Hershey Stock Analysis
When running Hershey's price analysis, check to measure Hershey's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hershey is operating at the current time. Most of Hershey's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hershey's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hershey's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hershey to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.