SK Hynix Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HY9H Stock   109.00  4.00  3.54%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of SK hynix on the next trading day is expected to be 110.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 206.14. HY9H Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of SK Hynix's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for SK Hynix is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of SK hynix value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

SK Hynix Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of SK hynix on the next trading day is expected to be 110.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.38, mean absolute percentage error of 17.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 206.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HY9H Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SK Hynix's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

SK Hynix Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest SK HynixSK Hynix Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

SK Hynix Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting SK Hynix's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SK Hynix's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 106.42 and 113.60, respectively. We have considered SK Hynix's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
109.00
106.42
Downside
110.01
Expected Value
113.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SK Hynix stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SK Hynix stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.9915
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.3793
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.028
SAESum of the absolute errors206.1388
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of SK hynix. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict SK Hynix. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for SK Hynix

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SK hynix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
105.41109.00112.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
93.3996.98119.90
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
109.88124.64139.40
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as SK Hynix. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against SK Hynix's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, SK Hynix's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in SK hynix.

Other Forecasting Options for SK Hynix

For every potential investor in HY9H, whether a beginner or expert, SK Hynix's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HY9H Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HY9H. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SK Hynix's price trends.

SK Hynix Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SK Hynix stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SK Hynix could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SK Hynix by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

SK hynix Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SK Hynix's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SK Hynix's current price.

SK Hynix Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SK Hynix stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SK Hynix shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SK Hynix stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SK hynix entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

SK Hynix Risk Indicators

The analysis of SK Hynix's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SK Hynix's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hy9h stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in HY9H Stock

SK Hynix financial ratios help investors to determine whether HY9H Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in HY9H with respect to the benefits of owning SK Hynix security.