IShares IBoxx Etf Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HYG Etf | USD 81.12 0.09 0.11% |
IShares Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of IShares IBoxx's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of IShares IBoxx's etf price is roughly 64. This usually indicates that the etf is rather overbought by investors as of 31st of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling IShares, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using IShares IBoxx hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of iShares iBoxx High from the perspective of IShares IBoxx response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards IShares IBoxx using IShares IBoxx's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards IShares using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of IShares IBoxx's stock price.
IShares IBoxx Implied Volatility | 0.19 |
IShares IBoxx's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of iShares iBoxx High stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if IShares IBoxx's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that IShares IBoxx stock will not fluctuate a lot when IShares IBoxx's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of iShares iBoxx High on the next trading day is expected to be 81.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.63. IShares IBoxx after-hype prediction price | USD 81.12 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IShares IBoxx to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current IShares contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that iShares iBoxx High will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0119% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With IShares IBoxx trading at USD 81.12, that is roughly USD 0.009633 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating IShares IBoxx's daily price movement you should consider acquiring iShares iBoxx High options at the current volatility level of 0.19%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 IShares Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast IShares IBoxx's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in IShares IBoxx's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for IShares IBoxx stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current IShares IBoxx's open interest, investors have to compare it to IShares IBoxx's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of IShares IBoxx is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in IShares. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
IShares IBoxx Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine IShares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for IShares using various technical indicators. When you analyze IShares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
IShares IBoxx Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of iShares iBoxx High on the next trading day is expected to be 81.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict IShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that IShares IBoxx's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
IShares IBoxx Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest IShares IBoxx | IShares IBoxx Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
IShares IBoxx Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting IShares IBoxx's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. IShares IBoxx's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 80.97 and 81.27, respectively. We have considered IShares IBoxx's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of IShares IBoxx etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent IShares IBoxx etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.9549 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0284 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0923 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.63 |
Predictive Modules for IShares IBoxx
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as iShares iBoxx High. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of IShares IBoxx's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
IShares IBoxx After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of IShares IBoxx at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in IShares IBoxx or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of IShares IBoxx, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
IShares IBoxx Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting IShares IBoxx's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on IShares IBoxx's historical news coverage. IShares IBoxx's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 80.97 and 81.27, respectively. We have considered IShares IBoxx's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
IShares IBoxx is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of iShares iBoxx High is based on 3 months time horizon.
IShares IBoxx Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as IShares IBoxx is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading IShares IBoxx backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with IShares IBoxx, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
81.12 | 81.12 | 0.00 |
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IShares IBoxx Hype Timeline
On the 31st of January iShares iBoxx High is traded for 81.12. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. IShares is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on IShares IBoxx is about 84.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 81.13. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IShares IBoxx to cross-verify your projections.IShares IBoxx Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to IShares IBoxx's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict IShares IBoxx's future price movements. Getting to know how IShares IBoxx's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how IShares IBoxx may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| USHY | iShares Broad USD | 0.01 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 0.30 | (0.24) | 0.76 | |
| EWJ | iShares MSCI Japan | (0.32) | 8 per month | 0.77 | 0.07 | 1.63 | (1.57) | 4.27 | |
| AVUV | Avantis Small Cap | 2.43 | 6 per month | 0.75 | 0.08 | 2.38 | (1.53) | 4.69 | |
| FBND | Fidelity Total Bond | 0.23 | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.34) | 0.28 | (0.35) | 0.85 | |
| SCHA | Schwab Small Cap ETF | (0.23) | 7 per month | 0.89 | 0.06 | 1.71 | (1.67) | 4.59 | |
| FNDF | Schwab Fundamental International | 0.13 | 7 per month | 0.39 | 0.21 | 1.50 | (1.08) | 2.64 | |
| COWZ | Pacer Cash Cows | 0.27 | 7 per month | 0.48 | 0.08 | 1.42 | (1.04) | 3.15 | |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging | (0.66) | 7 per month | 0.52 | 0.12 | 1.66 | (1.18) | 3.76 | |
| USIG | iShares Broad USD | (0.04) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 0.33 | (0.40) | 0.83 | |
| SHYG | iShares 0 5 Year | (0.05) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 0.26 | (0.16) | 0.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for IShares IBoxx
For every potential investor in IShares, whether a beginner or expert, IShares IBoxx's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. IShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in IShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying IShares IBoxx's price trends.IShares IBoxx Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with IShares IBoxx etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of IShares IBoxx could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing IShares IBoxx by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
IShares IBoxx Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how IShares IBoxx etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading IShares IBoxx shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying IShares IBoxx etf market strength indicators, traders can identify iShares iBoxx High entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
IShares IBoxx Risk Indicators
The analysis of IShares IBoxx's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in IShares IBoxx's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ishares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1225 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1667 | |||
| Variance | 0.0278 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0358 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.13) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for IShares IBoxx
The number of cover stories for IShares IBoxx depends on current market conditions and IShares IBoxx's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that IShares IBoxx is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about IShares IBoxx's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IShares IBoxx to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
The market value of iShares iBoxx High is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of IShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of IShares IBoxx's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is IShares IBoxx's true underlying value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Because IShares IBoxx's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect IShares IBoxx's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between IShares IBoxx's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if IShares IBoxx is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, IShares IBoxx's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.