IShares Biotechnology Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| IBB Etf | USD 177.64 2.48 1.42% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of iShares Biotechnology ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 175.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.99. IShares Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast IShares Biotechnology stock prices and determine the direction of iShares Biotechnology ETF's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of IShares Biotechnology's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength momentum indicator of IShares Biotechnology's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using IShares Biotechnology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of iShares Biotechnology ETF from the perspective of IShares Biotechnology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards IShares Biotechnology using IShares Biotechnology's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards IShares using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of IShares Biotechnology's stock price.
IShares Biotechnology Implied Volatility | 0.34 |
IShares Biotechnology's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of iShares Biotechnology ETF stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if IShares Biotechnology's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that IShares Biotechnology stock will not fluctuate a lot when IShares Biotechnology's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of iShares Biotechnology ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 175.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.99. IShares Biotechnology after-hype prediction price | USD 177.57 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IShares Biotechnology to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current IShares contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that iShares Biotechnology ETF will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0213% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With IShares Biotechnology trading at USD 177.64, that is roughly USD 0.0377 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating IShares Biotechnology's daily price movement you should consider acquiring iShares Biotechnology ETF options at the current volatility level of 0.34%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 IShares Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast IShares Biotechnology's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in IShares Biotechnology's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for IShares Biotechnology stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current IShares Biotechnology's open interest, investors have to compare it to IShares Biotechnology's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of IShares Biotechnology is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in IShares. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
IShares Biotechnology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine IShares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for IShares using various technical indicators. When you analyze IShares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
IShares Biotechnology Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of iShares Biotechnology ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 175.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.66, mean absolute percentage error of 4.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict IShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that IShares Biotechnology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
IShares Biotechnology Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest IShares Biotechnology | IShares Biotechnology Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
IShares Biotechnology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting IShares Biotechnology's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. IShares Biotechnology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 174.66 and 177.06, respectively. We have considered IShares Biotechnology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of IShares Biotechnology etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent IShares Biotechnology etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.5978 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6556 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0098 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 100.9889 |
Predictive Modules for IShares Biotechnology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as iShares Biotechnology ETF. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.IShares Biotechnology After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of IShares Biotechnology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in IShares Biotechnology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of IShares Biotechnology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
IShares Biotechnology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting IShares Biotechnology's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on IShares Biotechnology's historical news coverage. IShares Biotechnology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 176.37 and 178.77, respectively. We have considered IShares Biotechnology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
IShares Biotechnology is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of iShares Biotechnology ETF is based on 3 months time horizon.
IShares Biotechnology Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as IShares Biotechnology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading IShares Biotechnology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with IShares Biotechnology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.20 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
177.64 | 177.57 | 0.04 |
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IShares Biotechnology Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January iShares Biotechnology ETF is traded for 177.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. IShares is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 177.57. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on IShares Biotechnology is about 431.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 177.70. The company recorded a loss per share of 11.38. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IShares Biotechnology to cross-verify your projections.IShares Biotechnology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to IShares Biotechnology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict IShares Biotechnology's future price movements. Getting to know how IShares Biotechnology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how IShares Biotechnology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IJT | iShares SP Small Cap | 0.74 | 4 per month | 0.86 | 0.03 | 1.66 | (1.47) | 4.62 | |
| IJS | iShares SP Small Cap | 2.61 | 30 per month | 0.79 | 0.09 | 2.32 | (1.73) | 4.88 | |
| EWT | iShares MSCI Taiwan | (0.88) | 5 per month | 1.17 | 0.04 | 1.66 | (2.17) | 4.93 | |
| IJJ | iShares SP Mid Cap | (2.93) | 8 per month | 0.70 | 0.05 | 1.92 | (1.27) | 4.42 | |
| IDV | iShares International Select | 0.08 | 3 per month | 0.19 | 0.13 | 1.33 | (0.74) | 2.12 | |
| IXN | iShares Global Tech | 0.03 | 7 per month | 1.52 | (0.04) | 1.96 | (2.76) | 5.78 | |
| IOO | iShares Global 100 | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.77 | (0.02) | 1.18 | (1.54) | 4.51 | |
| URTH | iShares MSCI World | 0.87 | 8 per month | 0.75 | (0.05) | 1.09 | (1.23) | 3.32 | |
| DLN | WisdomTree LargeCap Dividend | 0.43 | 1 per month | 0.43 | (0.07) | 0.90 | (0.80) | 2.55 | |
| VOX | Vanguard Communication Services | 1.84 | 6 per month | 0.78 | (0.05) | 1.72 | (1.35) | 4.23 |
Other Forecasting Options for IShares Biotechnology
For every potential investor in IShares, whether a beginner or expert, IShares Biotechnology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. IShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in IShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying IShares Biotechnology's price trends.IShares Biotechnology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with IShares Biotechnology etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of IShares Biotechnology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing IShares Biotechnology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
IShares Biotechnology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how IShares Biotechnology etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading IShares Biotechnology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying IShares Biotechnology etf market strength indicators, traders can identify iShares Biotechnology ETF entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
IShares Biotechnology Risk Indicators
The analysis of IShares Biotechnology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in IShares Biotechnology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ishares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9517 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7481 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Variance | 1.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9441 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5596 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.13) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for IShares Biotechnology
The number of cover stories for IShares Biotechnology depends on current market conditions and IShares Biotechnology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that IShares Biotechnology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about IShares Biotechnology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IShares Biotechnology to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
The market value of iShares Biotechnology ETF is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of IShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of IShares Biotechnology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is IShares Biotechnology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because IShares Biotechnology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect IShares Biotechnology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between IShares Biotechnology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if IShares Biotechnology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, IShares Biotechnology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.