Ibiden CoLtd Pink Sheet Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| IBIDF Stock | USD 40.50 0.00 0.00% |
Ibiden Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ibiden CoLtd's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 27th of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Ibiden CoLtd's share price is at 53. This usually indicates that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ibiden CoLtd, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ibiden CoLtd hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ibiden CoLtd from the perspective of Ibiden CoLtd response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ibiden CoLtd on the next trading day is expected to be 40.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.16. Ibiden CoLtd after-hype prediction price | USD 40.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ibiden |
Ibiden CoLtd Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ibiden price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ibiden using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ibiden charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ibiden CoLtd Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ibiden CoLtd on the next trading day is expected to be 40.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71, mean absolute percentage error of 25.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ibiden Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ibiden CoLtd's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ibiden CoLtd Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ibiden CoLtd | Ibiden CoLtd Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ibiden CoLtd Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ibiden CoLtd's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ibiden CoLtd's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.68 and 55.30, respectively. We have considered Ibiden CoLtd's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ibiden CoLtd pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ibiden CoLtd pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.8121 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7146 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0372 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 101.1609 |
Predictive Modules for Ibiden CoLtd
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ibiden CoLtd. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ibiden CoLtd's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ibiden CoLtd After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ibiden CoLtd at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ibiden CoLtd or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Ibiden CoLtd, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ibiden CoLtd Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ibiden CoLtd's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ibiden CoLtd's historical news coverage. Ibiden CoLtd's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.69 and 55.31, respectively. We have considered Ibiden CoLtd's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ibiden CoLtd is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ibiden CoLtd is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ibiden CoLtd Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ibiden CoLtd is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ibiden CoLtd backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ibiden CoLtd, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.17 | 14.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
40.50 | 40.50 | 0.00 |
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Ibiden CoLtd Hype Timeline
Ibiden CoLtd is currently traded for 40.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Ibiden is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ibiden CoLtd is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 40.50. About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.48. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ibiden CoLtd last dividend was issued on the 30th of March 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ibiden CoLtd to cross-verify your projections.Ibiden CoLtd Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ibiden CoLtd's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ibiden CoLtd's future price movements. Getting to know how Ibiden CoLtd's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ibiden CoLtd may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SNPTF | Sunny Optical Technology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 0.00 | (3.27) | 18.76 | |
| BYDIF | BYD Electronic | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.98 | (8.01) | 20.71 | |
| BYDIY | BYD Electronic | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.10 | (6.55) | 17.38 | |
| SOTGY | Sunny Optical Technology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.40 | (5.89) | 16.09 | |
| NEMKY | Nemetschek SE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.56 | (9.42) | 24.69 | |
| WPLCF | Wise plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.81 | (0.03) | 3.59 | (3.22) | 17.05 | |
| YZOFF | Yangtze Optical Fibre | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| WIZEY | Wise plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.81 | (0.02) | 3.09 | (3.06) | 15.79 | |
| BESIY | BE Semiconductor Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.13 | 0.10 | 5.16 | (4.10) | 19.55 | |
| OCLCF | Oracle Japan | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.72 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ibiden CoLtd
For every potential investor in Ibiden, whether a beginner or expert, Ibiden CoLtd's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ibiden Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ibiden. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ibiden CoLtd's price trends.Ibiden CoLtd Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ibiden CoLtd pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ibiden CoLtd could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ibiden CoLtd by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ibiden CoLtd Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ibiden CoLtd pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ibiden CoLtd shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ibiden CoLtd pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Ibiden CoLtd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ibiden CoLtd Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ibiden CoLtd's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ibiden CoLtd's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ibiden pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 14.35 | |||
| Variance | 205.85 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ibiden CoLtd
The number of cover stories for Ibiden CoLtd depends on current market conditions and Ibiden CoLtd's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ibiden CoLtd is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ibiden CoLtd's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Ibiden Pink Sheet
Ibiden CoLtd financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ibiden Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ibiden with respect to the benefits of owning Ibiden CoLtd security.