Ibiden CoLtd Pink Sheet Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

IBIDF Stock  USD 40.50  0.00  0.00%   
Ibiden Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ibiden CoLtd's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 27th of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Ibiden CoLtd's share price is at 53. This usually indicates that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ibiden CoLtd, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 53

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Ibiden CoLtd's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ibiden CoLtd and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ibiden CoLtd's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ibiden CoLtd, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Ibiden CoLtd hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ibiden CoLtd from the perspective of Ibiden CoLtd response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ibiden CoLtd on the next trading day is expected to be 40.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.16.

Ibiden CoLtd after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 40.5  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ibiden CoLtd to cross-verify your projections.

Ibiden CoLtd Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ibiden price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ibiden using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ibiden charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Ibiden CoLtd works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Ibiden CoLtd Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ibiden CoLtd on the next trading day is expected to be 40.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71, mean absolute percentage error of 25.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.16.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ibiden Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ibiden CoLtd's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ibiden CoLtd Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ibiden CoLtd  Ibiden CoLtd Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Ibiden CoLtd Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ibiden CoLtd's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ibiden CoLtd's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.68 and 55.30, respectively. We have considered Ibiden CoLtd's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
40.50
40.49
Expected Value
55.30
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ibiden CoLtd pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ibiden CoLtd pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.8121
MADMean absolute deviation1.7146
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0372
SAESum of the absolute errors101.1609
When Ibiden CoLtd prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Ibiden CoLtd trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Ibiden CoLtd observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Ibiden CoLtd

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ibiden CoLtd. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ibiden CoLtd's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.6940.5055.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
32.9347.7462.55
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
40.5040.5040.50
Details

Ibiden CoLtd After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Ibiden CoLtd at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ibiden CoLtd or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Ibiden CoLtd, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Ibiden CoLtd Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Ibiden CoLtd's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ibiden CoLtd's historical news coverage. Ibiden CoLtd's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.69 and 55.31, respectively. We have considered Ibiden CoLtd's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
40.50
40.50
After-hype Price
55.31
Upside
Ibiden CoLtd is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ibiden CoLtd is based on 3 months time horizon.

Ibiden CoLtd Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ibiden CoLtd is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ibiden CoLtd backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ibiden CoLtd, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.17 
14.81
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
40.50
40.50
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Ibiden CoLtd Hype Timeline

Ibiden CoLtd is currently traded for 40.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Ibiden is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ibiden CoLtd is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 40.50. About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.48. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ibiden CoLtd last dividend was issued on the 30th of March 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ibiden CoLtd to cross-verify your projections.

Ibiden CoLtd Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Ibiden CoLtd's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ibiden CoLtd's future price movements. Getting to know how Ibiden CoLtd's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ibiden CoLtd may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SNPTFSunny Optical Technology 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.21) 0.00 (3.27) 18.76 
BYDIFBYD Electronic 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.03) 6.98 (8.01) 20.71 
BYDIYBYD Electronic 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.09) 5.10 (6.55) 17.38 
SOTGYSunny Optical Technology 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.13) 5.40 (5.89) 16.09 
NEMKYNemetschek SE 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.12) 5.56 (9.42) 24.69 
WPLCFWise plc 0.00 0 per month 1.81 (0.03) 3.59 (3.22) 17.05 
YZOFFYangtze Optical Fibre 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
WIZEYWise plc 0.00 0 per month 1.81 (0.02) 3.09 (3.06) 15.79 
BESIYBE Semiconductor Industries 0.00 0 per month 2.13  0.10  5.16 (4.10) 19.55 
OCLCFOracle Japan 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.22) 0.00  0.00  6.72 

Other Forecasting Options for Ibiden CoLtd

For every potential investor in Ibiden, whether a beginner or expert, Ibiden CoLtd's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ibiden Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ibiden. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ibiden CoLtd's price trends.

Ibiden CoLtd Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ibiden CoLtd pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ibiden CoLtd could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ibiden CoLtd by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ibiden CoLtd Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ibiden CoLtd pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ibiden CoLtd shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ibiden CoLtd pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Ibiden CoLtd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ibiden CoLtd Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ibiden CoLtd's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ibiden CoLtd's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ibiden pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Ibiden CoLtd

The number of cover stories for Ibiden CoLtd depends on current market conditions and Ibiden CoLtd's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ibiden CoLtd is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ibiden CoLtd's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Ibiden Pink Sheet

Ibiden CoLtd financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ibiden Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ibiden with respect to the benefits of owning Ibiden CoLtd security.