Impact BioMedical Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| IBO Stock | USD 0.48 0.02 4.00% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Impact BioMedical on the next trading day is expected to be 0.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.23. Impact Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of Impact BioMedical's share price is approaching 46. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Impact BioMedical, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Impact BioMedical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Impact BioMedical from the perspective of Impact BioMedical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Impact BioMedical on the next trading day is expected to be 0.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.23. Impact BioMedical after-hype prediction price | USD 0.48 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Impact BioMedical to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Impact Stock, please use our How to Invest in Impact BioMedical guide.Impact BioMedical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Impact price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Impact using various technical indicators. When you analyze Impact charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Impact BioMedical Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Impact BioMedical on the next trading day is expected to be 0.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Impact Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Impact BioMedical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Impact BioMedical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Impact BioMedical | Impact BioMedical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Impact BioMedical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Impact BioMedical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Impact BioMedical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 8.10, respectively. We have considered Impact BioMedical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Impact BioMedical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Impact BioMedical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.5607 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0024 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0204 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0399 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.2251 |
Predictive Modules for Impact BioMedical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Impact BioMedical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Impact BioMedical After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Impact BioMedical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Impact BioMedical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Impact BioMedical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Impact BioMedical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Impact BioMedical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Impact BioMedical's historical news coverage. Impact BioMedical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.02 and 8.10, respectively. We have considered Impact BioMedical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Impact BioMedical is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Impact BioMedical is based on 3 months time horizon.
Impact BioMedical Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Impact BioMedical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Impact BioMedical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Impact BioMedical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 7.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.48 | 0.48 | 0.00 |
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Impact BioMedical Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of January Impact BioMedical is traded for 0.48. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Impact is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Impact BioMedical is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.48. About 89.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.24. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Impact BioMedical recorded a loss per share of 3.94. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Impact BioMedical to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Impact Stock, please use our How to Invest in Impact BioMedical guide.Impact BioMedical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Impact BioMedical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Impact BioMedical's future price movements. Getting to know how Impact BioMedical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Impact BioMedical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NRSN | Neurosense Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 12.82 | (7.48) | 34.62 | |
| AIM | AIM ImmunoTech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 7.69 | (10.32) | 29.72 | |
| BCLI | Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 9.09 | (6.67) | 24.01 | |
| TCRT | Alaunos Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.70 | 0.02 | 9.61 | (10.55) | 24.31 | |
| MLEC | Moolec Science SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 10.91 | 0.03 | 15.63 | (16.33) | 152.55 | |
| CYCN | Cyclerion Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.63 | (10.56) | 55.81 | |
| QNRX | Quoin Pharmaceuticals Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 8.52 | (0) | 18.69 | (10.99) | 77.47 | |
| ADIL | Adial Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 5.56 | (6.25) | 16.67 | |
| XTLB | XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 5.32 | (9.24) | 69.50 | |
| XBIO | Xenetic Biosciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 4.37 | (6.84) | 16.12 |
Other Forecasting Options for Impact BioMedical
For every potential investor in Impact, whether a beginner or expert, Impact BioMedical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Impact Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Impact. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Impact BioMedical's price trends.Impact BioMedical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Impact BioMedical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Impact BioMedical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Impact BioMedical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Impact BioMedical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Impact BioMedical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Impact BioMedical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Impact BioMedical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Impact BioMedical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Impact BioMedical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Impact BioMedical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Impact BioMedical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting impact stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.62 | |||
| Variance | 58.07 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Impact BioMedical
The number of cover stories for Impact BioMedical depends on current market conditions and Impact BioMedical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Impact BioMedical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Impact BioMedical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Impact BioMedical Short Properties
Impact BioMedical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Impact BioMedical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Impact BioMedical often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Impact BioMedical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Impact BioMedical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Impact BioMedical to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Impact Stock, please use our How to Invest in Impact BioMedical guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Impact BioMedical. If investors know Impact will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Impact BioMedical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Impact BioMedical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Impact that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Impact BioMedical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Impact BioMedical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Impact BioMedical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Impact BioMedical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Impact BioMedical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Impact BioMedical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Impact BioMedical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.