International Consolidated Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Regression
| ICAGY Stock | USD 11.60 0.22 1.93% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of International Consolidated Airlines on the next trading day is expected to be 11.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.79. International Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of International Consolidated's share price is at 57. This usually indicates that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling International Consolidated, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using International Consolidated hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of International Consolidated Airlines from the perspective of International Consolidated response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of International Consolidated Airlines on the next trading day is expected to be 11.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.79. International Consolidated after-hype prediction price | USD 11.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
International |
International Consolidated Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine International price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for International using various technical indicators. When you analyze International charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
International Consolidated Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of International Consolidated Airlines on the next trading day is expected to be 11.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict International Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that International Consolidated's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
International Consolidated Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest International Consolidated | International Consolidated Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
International Consolidated Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting International Consolidated's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. International Consolidated's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.11 and 13.62, respectively. We have considered International Consolidated's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of International Consolidated pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent International Consolidated pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3314 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3998 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0376 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.7852 |
Predictive Modules for International Consolidated
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as International Consolidated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.International Consolidated After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of International Consolidated at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in International Consolidated or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of International Consolidated, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
International Consolidated Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting International Consolidated's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on International Consolidated's historical news coverage. International Consolidated's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.37 and 13.83, respectively. We have considered International Consolidated's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
International Consolidated is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of International Consolidated is based on 3 months time horizon.
International Consolidated Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as International Consolidated is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading International Consolidated backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with International Consolidated, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 2.25 | 1.49 | 0.50 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.60 | 11.60 | 0.00 |
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International Consolidated Hype Timeline
International Consolidated is currently traded for 11.60. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.49, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.5. International is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 21.13%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on International Consolidated is about 62.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.10. The book value of the company was currently reported as 0.72. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.12. International Consolidated last dividend was issued on the 8th of October 2020. The entity had 2499:1000 split on the 25th of October 2016. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of International Consolidated to cross-verify your projections.International Consolidated Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to International Consolidated's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict International Consolidated's future price movements. Getting to know how International Consolidated's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how International Consolidated may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DE | Deere Company | 3.47 | 8 per month | 1.48 | 0.07 | 2.70 | (2.07) | 7.96 | |
| EPASX | Ep Emerging Markets | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.41 | (0.01) | 1.39 | (0.78) | 3.02 | |
| FGRO | Fidelity Growth Opportunities | (0.18) | 2 per month | 17.20 | 0.17 | 1.35 | (1.60) | 5,625 | |
| ANTMX | Nt International Small Mid | 0.13 | 1 per month | 0.77 | 0.07 | 1.40 | (1.43) | 3.31 | |
| JHMXX | John Hancock Money | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| GVPIX | Us Government Plus | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 0.76 | (1.27) | 2.68 | |
| QUAZX | Ab Small Cap | (35.62) | 1 per month | 1.45 | 0.05 | 2.05 | (2.40) | 6.54 | |
| UIPMX | Precious Metals And | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.14 | 0.14 | 4.42 | (4.18) | 10.33 | |
| DOMIX | Domini Impact International | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.59 | 0.0006 | 1.08 | (1.35) | 3.56 |
Other Forecasting Options for International Consolidated
For every potential investor in International, whether a beginner or expert, International Consolidated's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. International Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in International. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying International Consolidated's price trends.International Consolidated Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with International Consolidated pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of International Consolidated could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing International Consolidated by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
International Consolidated Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how International Consolidated pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading International Consolidated shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying International Consolidated pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify International Consolidated Airlines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
International Consolidated Risk Indicators
The analysis of International Consolidated's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in International Consolidated's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting international pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Variance | 4.72 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for International Consolidated
The number of cover stories for International Consolidated depends on current market conditions and International Consolidated's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that International Consolidated is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about International Consolidated's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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International Consolidated Short Properties
International Consolidated's future price predictability will typically decrease when International Consolidated's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of International Consolidated Airlines often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential International Consolidated's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. International Consolidated's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.9 B |
Additional Tools for International Pink Sheet Analysis
When running International Consolidated's price analysis, check to measure International Consolidated's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy International Consolidated is operating at the current time. Most of International Consolidated's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of International Consolidated's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move International Consolidated's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of International Consolidated to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.