Incitec Pivot Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ICPVF Stock | USD 2.19 0.00 0.00% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Incitec Pivot Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.42. Incitec Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Incitec Pivot's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 25th of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Incitec Pivot's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Incitec Pivot hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Incitec Pivot Limited from the perspective of Incitec Pivot response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Incitec Pivot Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.42. Incitec Pivot after-hype prediction price | USD 2.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Incitec |
Incitec Pivot Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Incitec price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Incitec using various technical indicators. When you analyze Incitec charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Incitec Pivot Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Incitec Pivot Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Incitec Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Incitec Pivot's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Incitec Pivot Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Incitec Pivot | Incitec Pivot Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Incitec Pivot Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Incitec Pivot's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Incitec Pivot's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.42 and 3.96, respectively. We have considered Incitec Pivot's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Incitec Pivot pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Incitec Pivot pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.7085 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 3.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.007 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0034 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.42 |
Predictive Modules for Incitec Pivot
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Incitec Pivot Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Incitec Pivot's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Incitec Pivot After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Incitec Pivot at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Incitec Pivot or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Incitec Pivot, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Incitec Pivot Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Incitec Pivot's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Incitec Pivot's historical news coverage. Incitec Pivot's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.42 and 3.96, respectively. We have considered Incitec Pivot's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Incitec Pivot is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Incitec Pivot Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
Incitec Pivot Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Incitec Pivot is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Incitec Pivot backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Incitec Pivot, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 1.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.19 | 2.19 | 0.00 |
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Incitec Pivot Hype Timeline
Incitec Pivot Limited is currently traded for 2.19. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Incitec is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Incitec Pivot is about 686.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.19. About 44.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.18. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Incitec Pivot Limited last dividend was issued on the 5th of December 2022. The entity had 20:1 split on the 18th of September 2008. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Incitec Pivot to cross-verify your projections.Incitec Pivot Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Incitec Pivot's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Incitec Pivot's future price movements. Getting to know how Incitec Pivot's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Incitec Pivot may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SASOF | Sasol Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.57 | (2.40) | 43.24 | |
| AWTRF | Air Water | 0.86 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.91 | |
| WKCMF | Wacker Chemie AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.96 | 0.02 | 3.75 | (4.31) | 18.08 | |
| HXXPY | HEXPOL AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CLZNF | Clariant AG | 0.86 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.53 | |
| MITUF | Mitsui Chemicals | 0.86 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.48 | |
| OCLDF | Orica Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.57 | |
| ARKAY | Arkema SA ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.83 | (0.02) | 4.37 | (3.37) | 10.52 | |
| NOFCF | NOF Corporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| KURRF | Kuraray Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.69 | 0.01 | 0.00 | (4.08) | 47.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for Incitec Pivot
For every potential investor in Incitec, whether a beginner or expert, Incitec Pivot's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Incitec Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Incitec. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Incitec Pivot's price trends.Incitec Pivot Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Incitec Pivot pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Incitec Pivot could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Incitec Pivot by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Incitec Pivot Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Incitec Pivot pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Incitec Pivot shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Incitec Pivot pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Incitec Pivot Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Incitec Pivot Risk Indicators
The analysis of Incitec Pivot's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Incitec Pivot's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting incitec pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3032 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Variance | 2.93 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Incitec Pivot
The number of cover stories for Incitec Pivot depends on current market conditions and Incitec Pivot's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Incitec Pivot is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Incitec Pivot's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Incitec Pink Sheet
Incitec Pivot financial ratios help investors to determine whether Incitec Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Incitec with respect to the benefits of owning Incitec Pivot security.