IDW Media Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Regression
| IDWM Stock | USD 34.01 0.00 0.00% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of IDW Media Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 33.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.35. IDW Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of IDW Media's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using IDW Media hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of IDW Media Holdings from the perspective of IDW Media response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of IDW Media Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 33.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.35. IDW Media after-hype prediction price | USD 34.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
IDW |
IDW Media Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine IDW price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for IDW using various technical indicators. When you analyze IDW charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
IDW Media Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of IDW Media Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 33.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04, mean absolute percentage error of 2.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict IDW Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that IDW Media's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
IDW Media Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest IDW Media | IDW Media Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
IDW Media Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting IDW Media's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. IDW Media's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.81 and 37.14, respectively. We have considered IDW Media's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of IDW Media pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent IDW Media pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.8867 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0384 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0284 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 63.3454 |
Predictive Modules for IDW Media
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as IDW Media Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of IDW Media's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
IDW Media After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of IDW Media at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in IDW Media or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of IDW Media, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
IDW Media Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting IDW Media's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on IDW Media's historical news coverage. IDW Media's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.85 and 37.17, respectively. We have considered IDW Media's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
IDW Media is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of IDW Media Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
IDW Media Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as IDW Media is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading IDW Media backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with IDW Media, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 3.16 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
34.01 | 34.01 | 0.00 |
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IDW Media Hype Timeline
IDW Media Holdings is currently traded for 34.01. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.04. IDW is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on IDW Media is about 2078.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 34.05. About 20.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of IDW Media was currently reported as 1.47. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 655.68. IDW Media Holdings recorded a loss per share of 1.04. The entity last dividend was issued on the 27th of January 2016. The firm had 10:1 split on the 4th of August 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IDW Media to cross-verify your projections.IDW Media Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to IDW Media's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict IDW Media's future price movements. Getting to know how IDW Media's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how IDW Media may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RLXXF | Relx PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.00 | (3.59) | 10.16 | |
| NTTYY | Nippon Telegraph and | (0.23) | 25 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.59 | (1.47) | 5.40 | |
| NPPXF | Nippon Telegraph Telephone | (0.23) | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.19 | (6.19) | 20.53 | |
| SOBKY | SoftBank Corp | 0.71 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.64 | (1.68) | 7.61 | |
| XLMDF | XLMedia PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 90.00 | |
| SFBQF | SoftBank Corp | (0.23) | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.03 | (5.03) | 22.61 | |
| GLMFF | Glacier Media | 0.08 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 33.57 | |
| KDDIY | KDDI Corp PK | 0.71 | 12 per month | 0.84 | 0.0005 | 2.13 | (1.51) | 4.80 | |
| KDDIF | KDDI Corp | 0.71 | 12 per month | 2.11 | 0.01 | 2.39 | (6.56) | 35.45 | |
| STAOF | Sing Tao News | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for IDW Media
For every potential investor in IDW, whether a beginner or expert, IDW Media's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. IDW Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in IDW. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying IDW Media's price trends.IDW Media Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with IDW Media pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of IDW Media could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing IDW Media by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
IDW Media Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how IDW Media pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading IDW Media shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying IDW Media pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify IDW Media Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
IDW Media Risk Indicators
The analysis of IDW Media's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in IDW Media's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting idw pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.01 | |||
| Variance | 9.09 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for IDW Media
The number of cover stories for IDW Media depends on current market conditions and IDW Media's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that IDW Media is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about IDW Media's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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IDW Media Short Properties
IDW Media's future price predictability will typically decrease when IDW Media's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of IDW Media Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential IDW Media's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. IDW Media's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Float Shares | 2.13M | |
| Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day | 6.18k | |
| Average Daily Volume In Three Month | 4k |
Other Information on Investing in IDW Pink Sheet
IDW Media financial ratios help investors to determine whether IDW Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in IDW with respect to the benefits of owning IDW Media security.