IShares Oil ETF Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average
| IEO ETF | USD 117.35 0.98 0.84% |
IShares Oil's 4 Period Moving Average forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The 4 Period Moving Average model projects IShares Oil at 115.34 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The 4 Period Moving Average output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of May 2026
Over a 90-day horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average model forecasts IShares Oil at 115.34 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 2.66 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 151.49 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of IShares Oil's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest IShares Oil | IShares Oil Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This forecast for IShares Oil frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The projected band runs from roughly 113.49 on the downside to about 117.19 on the upside. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the 4 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for IShares Oil ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.073 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.4467 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.6578 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0227 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 151.4925 |
Other Forecasting Options for IShares Oil
Analyzing IShares Oil's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in IShares Oil's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.IShares Oil Comparable Funds
Investors studying IShares Oil often review similar funds to compare yield, discount behavior, and risk. Useful comparisons usually include net asset value behavior, total return, volatility, distribution profile, and leverage.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
IShares Oil Market Strength Events
For investors tracking iShares Oil Gas, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of ETF behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in IShares Oil.
IShares Oil Risk Indicators
Analyzing IShares Oil's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for ishares oil etf. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for IShares Oil.
| Mean Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Variance | 3.48 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.49 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.29 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.